32 Questions
| Total Attempts: 263

Questions and Answers

- 1.Forecasts
- A.
Become more accurate with longer time horizons

- B.
Are more accurate for individual items than for group of items

- C.
Are rarely perfect

- D.
All of the above

- E.
None of the above

- 2.Exponential smoothing is a form of weighted averaging
- A.
True

- B.
False

- 3.Given the following histrocial data, what is the simple three period moving average forecast for period 6? show all your work
- A.
1

- B.
68

- C.
65

- D.
67

- E.
None of the above

- 4.The following equation is used to predict quarterly demand: Yt = 300 - 2t where = 1 in the second quarter of last year. quarterly seasonal indices are Q1 = 1.5; Q = .8; Q3 = 1.1; and Q4 = .6, What is the seasonally adjusted forecast for the third quarter of this year? (show all your work)
- A.
314.6

- B.
316.6

- C.
316.8

- D.
314.8

- E.
None of the above

- 5.In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the simple moving average technique, the number of data points in the average (n) should be
- A.
Decreased

- B.
Increased

- C.
Multiplied by a larger alpha

- D.
Multiplied by a smaller alpha

- E.
None of the above

- 6.Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?
- A.
Executive opinions

- B.
Sales force opinions

- C.
Consumer surveys

- D.
The delphi method

- E.
Time series analysis

- 7.Forecasts for groups of items tend to be less accurate than forecasts for individual items because forecasts for individual items don't include as many influencing factors
- A.
True

- B.
False

- 8.The mean absolute deviation (mad) is used to
- A.
Estimate the trend line

- B.
Eliminate forecast errors

- C.
Measure forecast accuracy

- D.
Seasonally adjust the forecast

- E.
All of the above

- 9.A smoothing constant (i.e., a) of .1 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden change than a smoothing constant value of .3 will
- A.
True

- B.
False

- 10.St month's actual demand is the same as a forecast for this month if the forecast is based on
- A.
Exponential smoothing (or weighting) with aplha equal to .5

- B.
Naive forecast

- C.
Weighted moving average

- D.
Moving average with a period of at least two months

- 11.Forecast is a statement about the future value of a variable of interest
- A.
True

- B.
False

- 12.Error-difference between the actual value and the value that was predicted for a given period
- A.
True

- B.
False

- 13.Mean absolute deviation (MAD)
- A.
The average of squared forecast errors

- B.
The average absolute forecast error

- 14.Mean squared error (MSE)
- A.
The average of squared forecast errors

- B.
The average absolute forecast error

- 15.Mean absolute percent error (MAPE) is the average absolute percent error
- A.
True

- B.
False

- 16.Judgmental forecasts
- A.
Forecasting technique that uses explanatory variables to predict future demand

- B.
Forecasts that project patterns identified in recent time series observations

- C.
Forecasts that use subjective inputs such as opinions from consumer surveys, sales staff, managers, executives, and experts

- 17.Times series forecasts
- A.
Forecasting technique that uses explanatory variables to predict future demand

- B.
Forecasts that project patterns identified in recent time series observations

- C.
Forecasts that use subjective inputs such as opinions from consumer surveys, sales staff, managers, executives, and experts

- 18.Associative model
- A.
Forecasting technique that uses explanatory variables to predict future demand

- B.
Forecasts that project patterns identified in recent time series observations

- C.
Forecasts that use subjective inputs such as opinions from consumer surveys, sales staff, managers, executives, and experts

- 19.Delphi method is an iterative process in which managers and staff complete a series of questionnaires, each developed from the previous one, to achieve a consensus forecast
- A.
True

- B.
False

- 20.Trend
- A.
Residual variations after all other behaviors are accounted for

- B.
Caused by unusual circumstances, not reflective of typical behavior

- C.
Wavelike variations lasting more than one year

- D.
Short term regular variations related to the calendar or time of day

- E.
A long term upward or downward movement in data

- 21.Seasonality
- A.
Residual variations after all other behaviors are accounted for

- B.
Caused by unusual circumstances, not reflective of typical behavior

- C.
Wavelike variations lasting more than one year

- D.
Short term regular variations related to the calendar or time of day

- E.
A long term upward or downward movement in data

- 22.Cycle
- A.
Residual variations after all other behaviors are accounted for

- B.
Caused by unusual circumstances, not reflective of typical behavior

- C.
Wavelike variations lasting more than one year

- D.
Short term regular variations related to the calendar or time of day

- E.
A long term upward or downward movement in data

- 23.Random variations
- A.
Residual variations after all other behaviors are accounted for

- B.
Short term regular variations related to the calendar or time of day

- C.
Wavelike variations lasting more than one year

- D.
Short term regular variations related to the calendar or time of day

- E.
A long term upward or downward movement in data

- 24.A forecast for any period that equals the previous period that equals the previous periods actual value
- A.
Naive forecast

- B.
Delphi method

- C.
Moving average

- 25.Moving average is a technique that averages a number of recent actual values, updated as new values become available
- A.
True

- B.
False

- 26.Weighted average is more recent values in a series are given more weight in computing a forecast
- A.
True

- B.
False

- 27.Exponential smoothing is a weighted averaging method based on previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error
- A.
True

- B.
False

- 28.Linear trend equation is Ft = a + bt, used to develop forecasts when trend is present
- A.
True

- B.
False

- 29.Seasonal relative is percentage of average or trend
- A.
True

- B.
False

- 30.Centered moving average is a moving average positioned at the center of the data that were used to compute it
- A.
True

- B.
False

- 31.Tracking signal is the ratio of cumulative forecast error to the corresponding value of MAD, used to monitor a forecast
- A.
True

- B.
False

- 32.Bias is persistent tendency for forecasts to be greater or less than the actual values of a time series
- A.
True

- B.
False