Critical Thinking MCQs: Reasoning

The prototype model over and under predicted correct classifications

Both of these explanations are appropriate because they provide valid reasons for why people persist even when the current investment is operating at a loss. The first explanation suggests that people may view the investment as a loss and want to avoid further losses or try to recoup their initial investment, which aligns with Prospect Theory. The second explanation proposes that people may persist due to a simple heuristic of avoiding waste, as they may feel that abandoning the investment would result in wasted resources. Both of these explanations offer plausible motivations for why people would continue despite the sunk costs.

However this is not the rational choice in a single instance since we should defect

T + K - believe it is heuristics but Cosmides and Tooby believe it is the formulation of the problem

Cooperate first move and then matches opponents last move each time.

Both probability matching and melioration have been shown to disappear under appropriately structured learning environments. This means that when the learning environment is designed in a certain way, individuals tend to stop engaging in these behaviors. Probability matching refers to the tendency to match responses to the probability of reinforcement, while melioration refers to the tendency to allocate behavior in proportion to the rate of reinforcement obtained from different options. Under appropriate learning conditions, individuals are likely to adopt more optimal decision-making strategies and abandon these less efficient behaviors.

Anchoring and adjustment is the correct answer because it refers to the cognitive bias where an initial piece of information (the anchor) influences subsequent judgments or estimates. In this case, the value of the random number generator serves as the anchor and affects the later estimate made about another question. The individual may adjust their estimate based on the initial anchor, leading to biased judgments.

This is the Law of small numbers - assuming probabilities balance out in small populations when in fact the larger the population the closer it will be to the average of the population
This also leads to the gambers fallacy - in which people blame a run of unsuccessful outcomes on bad luck not accepting everything is independent

Pascal's wager suggests that we should believe in God because it offers the highest expected utility if true. In other words, by believing in God, we have the potential to gain infinite happiness (eternal salvation) if God exists, while the potential loss (living a secular life) is finite. Therefore, the expected utility of believing in God is higher than not believing, as the potential reward outweighs the potential loss.

This showed the effect to be additive with grammatically similar stimuli had the highest identification

The frequencies are simpler than Bayesian computations because they involve counting the number of occurrences of an event, while Bayesian reasoning requires calculating probabilities based on prior knowledge and updating them with new information. This simplicity makes it easier for individuals to understand and reason about frequencies, leading to normative reasoning.

This is indicative of the personal version taking longer to override the heuristic response not to take a life

system 1 vs system 2 activation

Someone who savours delayed gratification in the knowledge the reward will be greater is said to have a low discount rate (k). This means that they place a lower value on immediate rewards and are willing to wait for a larger reward in the future. They have the ability to delay instant gratification and prioritize long-term benefits, indicating a lower discount rate.

Nominal essences refer to the defining features of natural kinds. These essences are the characteristics or qualities that are considered essential to the identity or nature of a particular kind of thing. They help to distinguish one natural kind from another and are used to classify and categorize objects or entities. Therefore, nominal essences are the correct answer in this context.

Expected Utility Theory is a normative theory because it focuses on how rational individuals should make decisions under conditions of uncertainty. It provides a framework for evaluating and comparing different courses of action based on their expected outcomes and the individual's preferences. Normative theories prescribe what individuals ought to do, rather than describing what they actually do or predicting their behavior. Therefore, Expected Utility Theory falls under the category of normative theories.

They all showed initial improvement but simple rule training saw people revert back to base rate neglect after a while

The pie function distorts objective probability and makes a subjective pie value - hence meaning 1.0 probabilities receive heavier weight in a certainty effect

The final one is unbounded rationality - decisions always meet normative expectation

People falling for the gambler's fallacy are more likely to do so when a sequence has more alternations/transition numbers. The gambler's fallacy is the belief that if an event has not occurred for a while, it is more likely to happen in the future. When a sequence has more alternations or transition numbers, it creates a pattern that individuals may interpret as a deviation from randomness. This can lead them to believe that the outcome will revert to the opposite pattern, even though each trial is independent and the previous outcomes do not affect the future ones.

According to Keil's continuum, Nominal kinds are considered to be poorer and more well-defined compared to Natural kinds. This means that Nominal kinds have less richness and clarity in their definitions, while Natural kinds have more richness and clarity in their definitions.

A form of Essentialism - looking for the essences in objects

A hard and easy version were introduced providing the frequencies to assist system 2 processing

Young children do not have the same concept of essences and hence are happy to call a painted horse a zebra

Gated communities are not a counter strategy that has evolved to counter free riders. Gated communities are residential areas that are enclosed by walls or fences, typically with restricted access. While they may provide a sense of security and exclusivity for the residents, they do not directly address the issue of free riders within a cooperating group. Counter strategies such as kin altruism, information exchange to limit free riders, and dowry payments are more relevant in addressing the problem of free riders within a group.

Attribute substitution refers to a cognitive process where individuals simplify complex decision-making tasks by substituting them with easier or more familiar ones. In this situation, instead of directly addressing a difficult question, individuals tend to rely on a heuristic or easier question that is related to the original task. This substitution allows individuals to make quicker decisions, but it may also lead to biases and errors in judgment.

When suggested that a 50:50 split should occur, 76% of P's agreed to it. Those that knew the player they were with had previously not behaved altruistically were more likely to pocket the money as a form of altruistic punishment

The Monty Hall problem is not a violation of the normative theory - Expected Utility theory. The Monty Hall problem is a probability puzzle that demonstrates the concept of conditional probability and the benefits of switching choices. It does not directly contradict the principles of Expected Utility theory, which focuses on decision-making under uncertainty based on expected values and utility maximization.

These treatments all worked to increase the % switch but never to 100%, the final group was the Compare group where they could see data from a number of participants

People prefer £500 now rather than £1000 in ten years because of a combination of factors. Firstly, hyperbolic discount rates play a role, meaning that people tend to value immediate rewards more than future rewards. Secondly, there is uncertainty about the future, and people may not be confident that they will actually receive the £1000 in ten years. Lastly, temporal proximity causes a disproportional increase in the attractiveness of the £500 option, as it is a more immediate and tangible reward compared to waiting for ten years.

Reber (1967) demonstrated the first ideas of intrinsic rule learning that could be applied to categorization by using an artificial grammar as the stimulus. This means that he created a set of rules and patterns that were not based on any natural language or real-world examples, but rather designed specifically for the experiment. By using an artificial grammar, Reber was able to study how participants learn and categorize based on these artificial rules, providing insights into the cognitive processes involved in rule learning and categorization.

They take into account a guaranteed gain when it should be discounted from the equation, meaning P's do not choose the highest expected utility

The correct answer is: The EDIT group showed a clear effect of rule based classification but not similarity.

This answer is supported by the information given in the question, which states that Johnstone and Shanks (2001) created a biconditional grammar with matching or editing rules. The results showed that the EDIT group had a clear effect of rule based classification, indicating that they were able to successfully apply the editing rules to the grammar. However, there is no mention of the EDIT group showing a clear effect of similarity, suggesting that their performance was not influenced by similarity. Therefore, the statement that the EDIT group showed a clear effect of rule based classification but not similarity is the correct explanation.

The correct answer is message framing. Message framing refers to how information is presented or framed, which can influence people's decision-making and risk preferences. In the Asian disease problem, Kahneman and Tversky found that when the problem was framed in terms of lives saved, people tended to be risk averse and chose the safer option. However, when the problem was framed in terms of lives lost, people tended to be risk-seeking and chose the riskier option. This demonstrates how the framing of information can significantly impact people's risk preferences and decision-making.

It is a theory to explain the systematic biases in the system that are seen through the heuristics we deploy

The correct answer is 2% - base rate neglect. Base rate neglect refers to the tendency to ignore the prevalence or base rate of a condition when making judgments or calculations. In this case, many people incorrectly assume that the chance of having the disease is equal to the false positive rate, which is 5%. However, the correct calculation takes into account both the false positive rate and the prevalence of the disease. Since the prevalence is 1/1000, the chance of a person who has a positive result actually having the disease is much lower, specifically 2%.

The extra utility from the gamble is no longer enough to compensate for the high winnings - an infinite expected value win with very low probability does not have an infinite expected utility

Decisions made by strangers are the least impulsive and have our best interests in hearts because they lack the temporal and physical impulsivity of getting the money now

Experts tend to have high levels of confidence in their judgments, even when their accuracy may be questionable. This is because experts have deep knowledge and experience in their field, which can lead them to feel overly confident in their abilities. However, research has shown that confidence does not always correlate with accuracy. In fact, experts may overestimate their accuracy, leading to a discrepancy between their confidence and actual performance.

Regret theory = compare alternative outcomes after decision to rejoice or regret dependent on the other outcomes

In regret theory, our subjective estimates of utility are contaminated by anticipated emotional states. This means that our expectations of how we will feel about the outcomes of our choices can influence our perception of the value or desirability of those outcomes. These anticipated emotions can bend or distort the value function, leading us to make decisions based on avoiding regret or seeking certain emotional states rather than purely rational considerations.

We have to integrate existing assets into decisions, something people often fail to do

Hence the patient had a prototype to categorise with but no memory to recognise previous examples he had seen, so he can't be accessing them from memory

This is the Conjunction fallacy and occurs because specific events seem more likely than general ones - hence the representativeness heuristic

Cosmides and Tooby discovered that asking in a frequency format would reduce the base rate neglect effect. This means that instead of presenting the problem in terms of probabilities or percentages, presenting it in terms of frequencies or actual numbers makes it easier for individuals to understand and make accurate judgments. This format allows people to better grasp the information and consider the base rates more effectively, leading to reduced neglect of the base rate information.

Stanovich and West found that overriding initial system 1 responses requires greater supervision from system 2, which is the reflective and analytical part of our thinking. This ability to override impulsive and automatic responses is associated with higher levels of intelligence. Therefore, the correct answer is Intelligence.

A fallacy of temporal decision making

Psychologists are asking whether people's reasoning about probabilities is normative by questioning whether the output would be the same as a Bayesian machine. This suggests that they are interested in determining if individuals' reasoning aligns with the rational and optimal methods of probability calculation and decision-making that a Bayesian machine would produce. In other words, they are assessing whether people's reasoning follows the principles of Bayesian inference and if their judgments are consistent with Bayesian statistical reasoning.

The classical theory assumes that conceptual classification is based on logical rules concerning necessary features. This means that in order to classify something into a certain concept, it must possess all the necessary features associated with that concept. However, one criticism of this model is that some features are not distinct enough. This means that certain features may be ambiguous or not clearly defined, making it difficult to determine whether an object possesses that feature or not. This can lead to confusion and inconsistencies in the classification process.

This proved GREED to be a basis for defection