The Great Manitoba Budget Quiz

Manitoba receives neither the most total transfer payments, nor the most on a per capita basis. Manitoba is to receive $3.363 billion in federal transfer payments this fiscal year. That includes $1.792 billion in equalization payments, $1.121 billion for the Canada Health Transfer, and $443 million in Canada Social Transfer. Ontario ($19.8 billion in total transfers) and Quebec ($17.7 billion) receive the most transfers due to their larger populations.

In per capita terms, Manitoba is fourth highest at $2,633 per capita. PEI, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick all receive more, per capita, than Manitoba.

Manitoba expects to spend $10,805 per citizen in 2012-13. This is the second highest per capita program spending in Canada, with only Newfoundland and Labrador ($13,783) spending more. In general, provinces with the biggest population (BC, Alberta, Ontario and Quebec) spend less per capita, while provinces with smaller populations spend more. Manitoba is comparable in per capita spending with provinces like Saskatchewan ($10,180), New Brunswick ($10,054) and PEI ($10,128).

In 2012-13 Manitoba budgeted to spend 54 per cent more than it did in 2004/05. Total expenditures went up from $9.631 billion to $14.854 billion this past year.

Manitoba’s net debt has increased to $16.134 billion from $11.101 billion, a 45 per cent increase. Nationally over that same decade, only two provinces reduced their debt – Newfoundland/Labrador and Saskatchewan. The rest added considerably to net debt: Ontario (+85 per cent) Quebec (+77 per cent) and New Brunswick (+50 per cent). Even Alberta, which has no net debt, saw its net provincial surplus shrink by nearly a third.

Total debt servicing, at last count, was expected to be $815 million. Interestingly, this was only slightly more than the province spent on debt servicing in 2004-05 ($799 million). Not surprisingly, Manitoba spends less as a percentage of its total expenditures on debt servicing now than it did in 2004/05. Debt servicing accounted for 5.49 cents of every dollar spent; a decade ago, debt servicing consumed 8.8 cents of every dollar of expenditures.

When the year-end public accounts are examined, the NDP government has balanced six of the past 10 budgets. The province is currently on a streak of four consecutive deficit budgets. That streak will become five when it tables 2013-14 budget, which is expected to show a deficit. The province expects to balance its budget by 2016-2017.

Manitoba’s debt to GDP ratio is 27.1 per cent and has risen for five consecutive years, after reaching a low point of 21.6 in 2007-08. In national terms, Manitoba has a better debt to GDP than five other provinces: Quebec (49.4), Ontario (37.7), Nova Scotia (36.3), PEI (34.6), New Brunswick (33.3), and Newfoundland/Labrador (27.2). Manitoba’s also ranks better than the federal government, which has a ratio of 33.5. Manitoba could not better BC (17), Saskatchewan (5) or Alberta, which has no accumulated provincial debt.

Since 2004-05, Manitoba’s total revenues have grown from $10.1 billion to $13.855 billion. That’s a 36 per cent increase.

Although health care consumes the largest piece of the budget pie, the province has increased education more over the past decade, in percentage terms. Education (public and post-secondary) increased 54.8 per cent from 2004-05 and 2012-13. Total funding grew to $3.489 billion from $2.254 billion.

Of every dollar Manitoba spends, 35 cents goes to health care. This is actually lower than 2004/05, when 37 cents of every dollar was spent on health. The total health care budget for 2012-13 was, at last count, $5.266 billion, up from $3.559 billion a decade earlier.