Macro Environment

Typically lack peripheral vision

Cannot pay attention to the task at hand

Are easily distracted by disturbances that come into their environment

Easily pick up on non-obvious cues

Are good at doing more than one thing at the same time

Is nearly perfect

Depends on the algorithm employed

Is generally contained to rather superficial and incremental changes

Falls apart when people become really good at identifying black swans

Depends on reasoning from past examples and therefore is quite accurate

Unrelated to political and economic challenges

Are related since youth violence can be partially neutralized by a strong state

Are related since governments effectively fight unemployment

Are related since the Keynesian revolution allowed governments to fine tune the economy to the point where unemployment is no longer a problem in most of the world

Are related because economic growth grows continuously and the business cycle no longer produces recessions

Greater business cycle stability

Greater business cycle instability

Continued wide fluctuations in the business cycle unchanged since the period of the Great Depression

Greater stability in unemployment, with greater volatility in inflation leading to a pathology of enhanced stagflation

Worldwide stagnation in economic growth

Was grudgingly accepted soon after Keynes published his General Theory and implemented successfully by governments throughout the world

Requires governments to spend more when there is a recession

Requires government to move toward a surplus when an economy is overheated and headed toward high levels of inflation

Necessitates a heavy hand since automatic stabilizers result in government expenditures declining when there is a recession

Has a positive long term effect in lowering interest rates as government deficits do not compete with private borrowing

Fine-tuned fiscal and monetary policies are the primary causes of economic growth

Fine-tuned fiscal and monetary policies are incidental to long-term economic growth

Except for institutional structure, government spending and taxes contribute the most to long term economic productivity and growth

Economic fluctuations can be entirely eliminated if a nation just invests in its human and physical capital

The short run cure for a recession is investment in R&D and technology

Growing government surpluses during recessions

Declining prices during recessions

Enhanced government revenues from corporate taxes during recessions

Reduced government expenditures for unemployment compensation during recessions

Growing government deficits during recessions because of reduced taxable income and increased government obligations for program like unemployment insurance

Fiscal policy

Monetary policy

Fiscal and monetary policy

Micro-regulation

Micro-regulation, investment, technological investments, and international trade

That hit the U.S. after the Second World War

In which high levels of inflation combine with low levels of economic growth

That is a contradiction in terms that economists have ruled out as possible

That was caused by President Nixon fixing the price of oil

That was caused by President Carter attempting to achieve energy independence

Persists at historically disturbing levels

Is starting to slow to historically low levels and in some cases is shrinking

Remains very high in parts of Southern Europe in contrast to the rest of the world

Has tapered off and is statistically related to a significant drop in global violence

Has tapered off and is statistically related to a falloff in human dignity

The Federal Reserve cut the money supply to prevent inflation

The federal government lowered defense spending to prevent a recession

Foreign governments started to reduced the purchase of U.S. bonds, thus raising interest rates

A combination of tax cuts, increased military spending, lower interest rates, and foreigners buying U.S. bonds fed a U.S. real estate boom

The federal government raised taxes in order to finance the war against terror

The U.S.

Canada

China

India

Russia

Events in the world tend to follow events with definitive resolution

Trends tend to continue unabated

Trends move in a definitive negative or positive direction

Equally powerful and opposing trends can survive simultaneously without resolution for long periods of time

Weak signals result in the emergence of heroes, charismatic individuals, who tend to resolve historical tensions once and for all

Gradual increases of greenhouse gases despite potential climate disruption

Common responsibilities for all countries in the world to reduce global greenhouse emissions

Immediate rollback of greenhouse gas emissions to 1985 levels

Stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions only after further scientific clarity about their effects on climate and the environment

Common but differentiated responsibilities for emission stabilization (meaning that industrial countries must act first)

Battery electric

Hybrids

Gasoline internal combustion

Plug-in hybrid

Diesel

Are the best way to construct scenarios because the present always repeats the past

Provide near perfect insight into the situation the U.S. faces in Iraq

Provide many possibilities from World War I to Munich to World War II to the start of the Cold War to Vietnam for understanding the U.S. experience in Iraq

Need little explanation

Show that young people are not the at the root of today’s wars

1 & 2

2 & 3

1 & 3

None of the above

All of the above

Biodiesel

Nuclear power

Solar power

Wind power

Energy efficiency

Equal to every country in the world

Below almost every country in the world

Above Japanese levels but below European levels

Equal to Japanese levels and above European levels

Equal to European levels for diesel fuels but below European levels for regular gasoline

Predict the future

Forecast what happens

Eliminate all traces of uncertainty in strategy-making

Create stories about what might happen in order to influence the future

Create fixed roadmaps and final action plans that commit organizations for the long run

Always leads to inordinate amount of violence

Never leads to inordinate amount of violence

Only leads to an inordinate amount of violence when prior generations have been at peace

Only leads to an inordinate amount of violence when such special conditions are in place as charismatic leaders who take advantage of youth vulnerability, the existence of strong ideologies, a breakdown in the rule of law, and economic instability

Always has led to an inordinate amount of violence in Europe but not Asia

Government inaction in the face of the magnitude of the crisis

Massive government stimulus spending but an inactive Federal Reserve

Massive government stimulus spending and Federal Reserve lowering of interest rates

A simple bailout of the banks but nothing more

A government takeover of the banking system, with majority government ownership of the major banks

Must receive Congressional approval when it raises or lowers interest rates

Must obtain approval from the executive branch of government when it buys or sells bonds to banks

Can raise the discount rate without Congressional approval but cannot tinker with reserve requirements without the full vote of the House and Senate

Is entirely independent of the executive and legislative branches in its oversight of the money supply

Only received independence from the executive and legislative branches to set monetary policy during the Ford administration

In retrospect never live up to their promise

Build momentum and necessarily lead to more romances

Always result in tragedies

Always result in comedies

Can swing back and forth over time from romance to tragedy to comedy and so on

Diminished

Grew

Stayed about the same

Accelerated

Was entirely eliminated