Macro Environment
Settings
.
- 1.The invisible gorilla clip suggests that human’s
- A.
Typically lack peripheral vision
- B.
Cannot pay attention to the task at hand
- C.
Are easily distracted by disturbances that come into their environment
- D.
Easily pick up on non-obvious cues
- E.
Are good at doing more than one thing at the same time
- 2.The capacity of human’s to predict the future
- A.
Is nearly perfect
- B.
Depends on the algorithm employed
- C.
Is generally contained to rather superficial and incremental changes
- D.
Falls apart when people become really good at identifying black swans
- E.
Depends on reasoning from past examples and therefore is quite accurate
- 3.Population and security challenges ar
- A.
Unrelated to political and economic challenges
- B.
Are related since youth violence can be partially neutralized by a strong state
- C.
Are related since governments effectively fight unemployment
- D.
Are related since the Keynesian revolution allowed governments to fine tune the economy to the point where unemployment is no longer a problem in most of the world
- E.
Are related because economic growth grows continuously and the business cycle no longer produces recessions
- 4.Until the recent global financial collapse, the trend had been towards
- A.
Greater business cycle stability
- B.
Greater business cycle instability
- C.
Continued wide fluctuations in the business cycle unchanged since the period of the Great Depression
- D.
Greater stability in unemployment, with greater volatility in inflation leading to a pathology of enhanced stagflation
- E.
Worldwide stagnation in economic growth
- 5.Fiscal policy
- A.
Was grudgingly accepted soon after Keynes published his General Theory and implemented successfully by governments throughout the world
- B.
Requires governments to spend more when there is a recession
- C.
Requires government to move toward a surplus when an economy is overheated and headed toward high levels of inflation
- D.
Necessitates a heavy hand since automatic stabilizers result in government expenditures declining when there is a recession
- E.
Has a positive long term effect in lowering interest rates as government deficits do not compete with private borrowing
- 6.The consensus viewpoint among macroeconomists is that
- A.
Fine-tuned fiscal and monetary policies are the primary causes of economic growth
- B.
Fine-tuned fiscal and monetary policies are incidental to long-term economic growth
- C.
Except for institutional structure, government spending and taxes contribute the most to long term economic productivity and growth
- D.
Economic fluctuations can be entirely eliminated if a nation just invests in its human and physical capital
- E.
The short run cure for a recession is investment in R&D and technology
- 7.Automatic stabilizers signify
- A.
Growing government surpluses during recessions
- B.
Declining prices during recessions
- C.
Enhanced government revenues from corporate taxes during recessions
- D.
Reduced government expenditures for unemployment compensation during recessions
- E.
Growing government deficits during recessions because of reduced taxable income and increased government obligations for program like unemployment insurance
- 8.Economists tend to believe that long run economic growth is a consequence of
- A.
Fiscal policy
- B.
Monetary policy
- C.
Fiscal and monetary policy
- D.
Micro-regulation
- E.
Micro-regulation, investment, technological investments, and international trade
- 9.Stagflation is an economic condition
- A.
That hit the U.S. after the Second World War
- B.
In which high levels of inflation combine with low levels of economic growth
- C.
That is a contradiction in terms that economists have ruled out as possible
- D.
That was caused by President Nixon fixing the price of oil
- E.
That was caused by President Carter attempting to achieve energy independence
- 10.Population growth in the world
- A.
Persists at historically disturbing levels
- B.
Is starting to slow to historically low levels and in some cases is shrinking
- C.
Remains very high in parts of Southern Europe in contrast to the rest of the world
- D.
Has tapered off and is statistically related to a significant drop in global violence
- E.
Has tapered off and is statistically related to a falloff in human dignity
- 11.Post 9/11
- A.
The Federal Reserve cut the money supply to prevent inflation
- B.
The federal government lowered defense spending to prevent a recession
- C.
Foreign governments started to reduced the purchase of U.S. bonds, thus raising interest rates
- D.
A combination of tax cuts, increased military spending, lower interest rates, and foreigners buying U.S. bonds fed a U.S. real estate boom
- E.
The federal government raised taxes in order to finance the war against terror
- 12.Today, the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases is
- A.
The U.S.
- B.
Canada
- C.
China
- D.
India
- E.
Russia
- 13.Which of these statements is most true?
- A.
Events in the world tend to follow events with definitive resolution
- B.
Trends tend to continue unabated
- C.
Trends move in a definitive negative or positive direction
- D.
Equally powerful and opposing trends can survive simultaneously without resolution for long periods of time
- E.
Weak signals result in the emergence of heroes, charismatic individuals, who tend to resolve historical tensions once and for all
- 14.The 1992 “Earth Summit” (Rio Treaty) called for
- A.
Gradual increases of greenhouse gases despite potential climate disruption
- B.
Common responsibilities for all countries in the world to reduce global greenhouse emissions
- C.
Immediate rollback of greenhouse gas emissions to 1985 levels
- D.
Stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions only after further scientific clarity about their effects on climate and the environment
- E.
Common but differentiated responsibilities for emission stabilization (meaning that industrial countries must act first)
- 15.The following type of vehicle has very high potential for fuel savings, but also is projected to cost the most
- A.
Battery electric
- B.
Hybrids
- C.
Gasoline internal combustion
- D.
Plug-in hybrid
- E.
Diesel
- 16.Historical analogies
- A.
Are the best way to construct scenarios because the present always repeats the past
- B.
Provide near perfect insight into the situation the U.S. faces in Iraq
- C.
Provide many possibilities from World War I to Munich to World War II to the start of the Cold War to Vietnam for understanding the U.S. experience in Iraq
- D.
Need little explanation
- E.
Show that young people are not the at the root of today’s wars
- 17.A key driver of the future is likely to be the clash between which of these categories of young people?1. The serious, intent, motivated, resentful, hopeless, disillusioned, who feed off memories of historic injustices, are heavily attached to ethnic and religious communities, averse to free thinking, and tolerant of violence 2. The indifferent and untraditional, lacking in serious material aspirations, selfless, vain, egotistical, narcissistic, eager for praise, conforming, and spontaneous 3. The optimistic, who aspire to affluence, are entrepreneurial, favor freedom of choice, are cosmopolitan and enjoy global popular culture
- A.
1 & 2
- B.
2 & 3
- C.
1 & 3
- D.
None of the above
- E.
All of the above
- 18.Today, the most proven and cost-effective clean energy potential comes from
- A.
Biodiesel
- B.
Nuclear power
- C.
Solar power
- D.
Wind power
- E.
Energy efficiency
- 19.U.S. gasoline taxes are at a level
- A.
Equal to every country in the world
- B.
Below almost every country in the world
- C.
Above Japanese levels but below European levels
- D.
Equal to Japanese levels and above European levels
- E.
Equal to European levels for diesel fuels but below European levels for regular gasoline
- 20.The purpose of scenarios is to
- A.
Predict the future
- B.
Forecast what happens
- C.
Eliminate all traces of uncertainty in strategy-making
- D.
Create stories about what might happen in order to influence the future
- E.
Create fixed roadmaps and final action plans that commit organizations for the long run
- 21.A high percentage of young people in a population
- A.
Always leads to inordinate amount of violence
- B.
Never leads to inordinate amount of violence
- C.
Only leads to an inordinate amount of violence when prior generations have been at peace
- D.
Only leads to an inordinate amount of violence when such special conditions are in place as charismatic leaders who take advantage of youth vulnerability, the existence of strong ideologies, a breakdown in the rule of law, and economic instability
- E.
Always has led to an inordinate amount of violence in Europe but not Asia
- 22.The great financial meltdown of the first decade of the 21st century was followed by
- A.
Government inaction in the face of the magnitude of the crisis
- B.
Massive government stimulus spending but an inactive Federal Reserve
- C.
Massive government stimulus spending and Federal Reserve lowering of interest rates
- D.
A simple bailout of the banks but nothing more
- E.
A government takeover of the banking system, with majority government ownership of the major banks
- 23.The Federal Reserve
- A.
Must receive Congressional approval when it raises or lowers interest rates
- B.
Must obtain approval from the executive branch of government when it buys or sells bonds to banks
- C.
Can raise the discount rate without Congressional approval but cannot tinker with reserve requirements without the full vote of the House and Senate
- D.
Is entirely independent of the executive and legislative branches in its oversight of the money supply
- E.
Only received independence from the executive and legislative branches to set monetary policy during the Ford administration
- 24.Romances
- A.
In retrospect never live up to their promise
- B.
Build momentum and necessarily lead to more romances
- C.
Always result in tragedies
- D.
Always result in comedies
- E.
Can swing back and forth over time from romance to tragedy to comedy and so on
- 25.Between 1981-2006, business cycle instability
- A.
Diminished
- B.
Grew
- C.
Stayed about the same
- D.
Accelerated
- E.
Was entirely eliminated
- 26.Automakers
- A.
Have only one option for advancing beyond the current internal combustion engine – hybrids
- B.
Have at least 4 ways they can advance beyond the current internal combustion engine – hybrids, plug-in hybrids, all electric vehicles, and fuel-cell based vehicles
- C.
Have no feasible alternatives to the internal combustion engine
- D.
Have feasible alternatives for internal combustion engines for cars but not trucks
- E.
Have feasible alternatives for internal combustion engines for trucks but not cars
- 27.Narrative structure
- A.
Only provides insights into romances
- B.
Cannot be applied to building stories of the past or the future
- C.
Involves key actors/characters, motivations, actions, interactions, and the likelihood of continued unresolved tension
- D.
Always leads to tragedy
- E.
Never involves closure
- 28.The FDA
- A.
Has procedures in place for specific testing of anti-aging agents
- B.
Considers anti-aging treatments too general a condition to allow scientists to specifically target
- C.
Has approved for sale the anti-aging drug NAD (Elysium) that has been found to revitalize mice cells
- D.
Has approved for sale the anti-aging drug Rapamycin that was initially used for athlete’s foot and suppressing the immune system after transplants
- E.
Has low safety standards that it applies for approval of anti-aging drugs
- 29.Which of the following event did occur?
- A.
A late 2000s Japanese economic boom
- B.
A 1970s rise in religious fundamentalism
- C.
A 1950s subprime mortgage crisis
- D.
A collapse of Bretton Woods and subsequent floating of the dollar in the early 1970s
- E.
A 1980s rise in oil prices
- 30.The first hybrid cars introduced to the market were by
- A.
Honda and Toyota
- B.
Ford and General Motors
- C.
BMW and Volvo
- D.
Hyundai
- E.
None of the above
- 31.In developing scenarios, managers must be concerned with
- A.
Just state uncertainty
- B.
Just effect uncertainty
- C.
State, effect, and response uncertainty
- D.
Effect and response uncertainty
- E.
State and effect uncertainty
- 32.The devastation caused by the 1933 Great Depression
- A.
Was softened by national unemployment insurance introduced in the 1920s
- B.
Was exacerbated by the lack of unemployment insurance
- C.
Was exacerbated by public works programs that the Roosevelt administrated initiated
- D.
Was exacerbated by the passage of social security legislation
- E.
Was exacerbated by collective bargaining legislation (the Wagner Act)
- 33.Past trends
- A.
Are not necessarily good predictors of what is to come next
- B.
Definitively reveal what is to come next
- C.
Reveal statistical likelihoods with a very high degree of certainty and therefore can be entirely relied upon
- D.
Can be assumed to continue moving in the same direction in the future
- E.
Can be assumed to definitely move in a different direction in the future
- 34.CAFÉ standards in the U.S.
- A.
Did not change much between 1978-2003
- B.
Gradually became more strict each year between 1978-2003
- C.
Became more lenient in 1988, but otherwise did not change much between 1978-2003
- D.
Because more strict for trucks in 1988, but not for passenger cars
- E.
Became more strict for passenger cars in 1988, but not for trucks
- 35.Narrative structure
- A.
Is based on harmony and resolution
- B.
Is based on tension and closure and may involve repeated cycles
- C.
Is based on perfect foreknowledge of what is to come next
- D.
Is based on irresolution and lack of harmony not leading to closure
- E.
Is based on a single cycle of harmony and tension
- 36.Keynes blamed the Great Depression on
- A.
Excessive demand
- B.
Deficit spending
- C.
Multipliers
- D.
Growth in the size of the federal government
- E.
Inadequate demand
- 37.Stories
- A.
Almost always evolve in consistent patterns of romance, romance, romance or tragedy, tragedy, tragedy
- B.
Almost never evolve in consistent patterns of romance, romance, romance or tragedy, tragedy
- C.
Always evolve in inconsistent patterns such as romance, comedy, and then comedy
- D.
Sometimes evolve in consistent pattern and sometimes evolve in inconsistent patterns
- E.
Always evolve in inconsistent patterns such as comedy, tragedy, comedy
- 38.In creating scenarios, typically the hardest step is to
- A.
Simplify many factors into a few fundamental ones that bound the future in terms of the possibilities
- B.
Brainstorm trends and other factors that might affect the future
- C.
Accept that the world is a closed system that can be controlled
- D.
Apply the many analytical and reductionist techniques that can be used to create predictable certainties out of amorphous trends
- E.
Hold on to the illusion that it is possible to forecast the future with great accuracy
- 39.Fiscal policy
- A.
Stimulates the economy when the federal government increases spending
- B.
Puts the brakes on the economy when the federal government increases spending
- C.
Stimulates the economy through tax cuts
- D.
Stimulates the economy via federal government surpluses
- E.
Stimulates the economy by means of federal government deficits
- 40.The middle story in a typical group of scenarios is most beneficial
- A.
If it reflects the status quo trend line
- B.
If it suggests surprise
- C.
If it tilts toward romance
- D.
If it tilts toward tragedy
- E.
If it tilts away from comedy
- 41.In a business context, one should strive to estimate the impact of scenarios on
- A.
Customers
- B.
Suppliers
- C.
Competitors
- D.
Substitutes
- E.
Customer, suppliers, competitors, substitutes, and new entrants
- 42.Government deficits during World War Two
- A.
Were mainly financed by foreign borrowers
- B.
Provided evidence that Keynesian fiscal stimulus policy worked
- C.
Substantially raised private domestic investment
- D.
Had little or no effect on personal consumption
- E.
Led to a drop in U.S. GDP during the war years
- 43.In the “Davos World” scenario prepared by U.S. intelligence agencies
- A.
The U.S. is the central pivot
- B.
Military spending skyrockets
- C.
Highly educated immigrants from Muslim countries move to the U.S. because of the collapse of their societies
- D.
Highly educated immigrants from Muslim countries move to the U.S. because of disease and hunger
- E.
Highly educated immigrants from Muslim countries move to the U.S. because of opportunity
- 44.According to the U.S. Department of Energy projections, real growth of U.S. oil and gas supply will derive mainly from
- A.
Coalbed methane
- B.
Conventional discoveries of oil and natural gas
- C.
Offshore oil
- D.
Tar sands
- E.
Shale gas and tight oil
- 45.World population growth
- A.
Was about three time as great in the second half decade of the 20th century than it was in the first
- B.
Was about three time as great in the first half decade of the 20th century than it was in the second
- C.
Remained steady throughout the 20th century despite the wars, revolutions, and economic instability
- D.
Declined in the 20th century because of the wars, revolutions, and economic instability
- E.
Declined in the second half of the 20th century after rising in the first half
- 46.The U.N. projects
- A.
An indefinite growth in world population
- B.
World population peaking around 2050 and then starting to decline
- C.
World population reaching 12 billion in 2100
- D.
World population reach 16 billion in 2100
- E.
World population declining to 1 billion in 2100
- 47.Most companies
- A.
Prefer radical to incremental innovation because of the certainty of high payoffs
- B.
Prefer incremental to radical innovation because of the certainty of high payoffs
- C.
Prefer problem solving to revolutionary innovation because of the greater likelihood of success
- D.
Prefer revolutionary innovation to problem solving because of the greater likelihood of success
- E.
Prefer radical innovation to continuous improvement because of the
- 48.Oil consumption per capita is the greatest in the
- A.
U.S.
- B.
China
- C.
Russia
- D.
Canada
- E.
Argentina
- 49.The fertility rate
- A.
Currently is about the same in the developed and developing world
- B.
Is at the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman in every developing country
- C.
Is below the replacement fertility rate in such countries as Iran, Tunisia, and Lebanon
- D.
Is below the replacement fertility rate in such countries as Egypt and Pakistan
- E.
Is leading to a situation in the world where children ages 0-4 are likely to vastly outnumber their elders >65 years old
- 50.According to the economist, Frank Knight
- A.
Risk and uncertainty are the same
- B.
Risk and ambiguity are the same
- C.
Risk refers to situations where quantitative odds can be created with some degree of accuracy
- D.
Certainty refers to situations where quantitative odds can be confidently ascribed to outcomes
- E.
Ambiguity refers to conditions where qualitative outcomes cannot be described.
- 51.If the Federal Reserve wrongly anticipates a recession and increases the money supply or lowers interest rates to prevent it from occurring, it can
- A.
Amplify inflation
- B.
Retard inflation
- C.
Amplify unemployment
- D.
Deepen the recession
- E.
Crowd out private investment
- 52.The following factors are not alleged to affect fertility rates
- A.
The costs of raising children
- B.
Social values
- C.
Religious values
- D.
National values
- E.
None of the above
- 53.Future increases in world oil consumption are likely to be greatest in
- A.
North America
- B.
Latin America
- C.
Africa
- D.
Europe
- E.
Asia
- 54.When youth busts follow youth bulges
- A.
The likelihood of civil unrest and violence subsides
- B.
The likelihood of civil unrest and violence continues to grow so long as state authority is weak, religious or ethnic tensions high, and expectations rising
- C.
The likelihood of civil unrest and violence continues to grow so long as state authority is high, religious or ethnic tensions low, and expectations declining
- D.
The likelihood of civil unrest and violence continues to grow regardless of what other conditions are in place
- E.
There is no effect on the incidence of civil unrest and violence
- 55.A supply side stimulus
- A.
Is precisely the same as a demand side stimulus
- B.
Relies on lower marginal tax rates to induce private investment
- C.
Relies on high levels of government spending to induce private investment
- D.
Is meant to encourage lower income earners to avoid paying taxes
- E.
Is a tool used exclusively by West European Social Democratic governments to raise taxes
- 56.By 2012, ____% of human natural gas production came from fracking
- A.
24
- B.
100
- C.
2
- D.
88
- E.
5
- 57.In the invisible gorilla experiments, if you know that you should be looking for the gorilla
- A.
You still don’t see the gorilla
- B.
You are unable to count how many times the ball is passed
- C.
You are aware of the known unknown (the gorilla) but miss unknown unknowns like a change in the color of the curtain or one of the players walking away
- D.
You are aware of the known unknown (the gorilla) and now are able to recognize unknowns like a change in the color of the curtain or one of the players walking away
- E.
You lose interest in the experiment and neither know how many times the ball is passed or if a gorilla walks by
- 58.Trends
- A.
Are nearly infallible predictors of what is to come next if they are based on good historical data
- B.
Are imprecise indicators of what is to come next as the trends do not necessarily have to continue
- C.
Are especially accurate predictors of the future when the tends extend for five or more years
- D.
Are especially accurate predictors of the future when the tends extend for a few months
- E.
Always change direction and therefore provide no indication about what is to come next
- 59.Alzheimer treatment via blocking plaque production in the brain
- A.
Has made great advances as various drug companies have tested a variety of drugs that have obtained FDA approval
- B.
Seems to be stalled because the production of plaque is a consequence of Alzheimer’s onset and not its cause
- C.
Received a crushing blow when Biogen’s amyloid antibody aducanumab caused brain swelling in all the patients that were tested
- D.
Was given a huge boost when Merck’s BACE inhibitor not only reduced amyloid in spinal fluid by 80% but was effective in people who already showed signs of the disease
- E.
Also work as anti-inflammatory agents in patients with other symptoms of mental deterioration
- 60.Critiques of bottom of the pyramid technology point to
- A.
The limited number of really poor people in the world
- B.
Better opportunities in serving the emerging middle classes
- C.
A homogenous market with little need for product differentiation
- D.
The failure of micro-credit Grameen efforts to spread cell phones in Bangladesh
- E.
The failure of telecom services to take off in Morocco
- 61.Palantir Technologies has developed anti-terror technologies for
- A.
Improving the shared awareness of law enforcement and emergency response officials in carrying out various operations
- B.
Recognition of false identities on various identities cards and true identities through face and voice recognition
- C.
Mining large amounts of data that determines patterns and links in relationships
- D.
Nonlethal weapons that control crowds
- E.
Protecting aircrafts from explosives
- 62.After 2000, the U.S. wealth gap has _______, and the gap in wealth between countries has________
- A.
Grown/grown
- B.
Grown/fallen
- C.
Fallen/grown
- D.
Fallen/fallen
- E.
Stayed the same/stayed the same
- 63.Hedge funds are only open to
- A.
Investment by any U.S. citizen
- B.
Individuals earning >$200,000 a year with net worth >$1 million
- C.
Institutions like trusts, endowments, and pension funds
- D.
Those who sign documents that say they are willing to take on inordinate risk
- E.
Investors who agree not to ask for their money back for >5 years
- 64.Second generation biofuels consist of
- A.
Prairie and switch grass, wood, and animal waste
- B.
Corn, sugarcane, and soy
- C.
Algae
- D.
Tar sands
- E.
Stationary solar thermal systems
- 65.Most of the world’s oil reserves are owned by
- A.
Shell
- B.
Amoco
- C.
ExxonMobil
- D.
BP
- E.
National oil companies like INOC and PDVSA
- 66.All of the following are examples of unconventional oil and natural gas except
- A.
Tar sands
- B.
Shale
- C.
Off-shore
- D.
Deep water
- E.
The Ghawar field
- 67.Which country outside the U.S. has the most fracking potential?
- A.
Mexico
- B.
Argentina
- C.
China
- D.
South Africa
- E.
Poland
- 68.From 2013-2017 the number of cars sold worldwide
- A.
More than doubled
- B.
Declined by about 5%
- C.
Increased by about 8 percent
- D.
Stayed Steady
- E.
Increased by about 12 percent
- 69.The largest auto producing country in the world is
- A.
Mexico
- B.
The U.S.
- C.
Germany
- D.
Japan
- E.
China
- 70.Which of the following countries has the lowest average hourly wage costs
- A.
China
- B.
Brazil
- C.
South Korea
- D.
Mexico
- E.
India
- 71.Ninety percent of the innovations in the auto industry today come from _____ suppliers
- A.
Tire
- B.
Transmission
- C.
Brake
- D.
Glass
- E.
Electronic
- 72.In the rest of the world ______ constitutes the largest source for generating electricity, while in the U.S. ______ is the largest source
- A.
Coal/natural gas
- B.
Natural gas/coal
- C.
Biomass/nuclear
- D.
Hydro/coal
- E.
Natural gas/natural gas
- 73.The following is not a reason for coal’s relative decline as a fuel source for generating electricity in the U.S.
- A.
A decline in natural gas prices
- B.
Environmental standards
- C.
The revival of nuclear energy
- D.
Climate change concerns
- E.
Fracking
- 74.After the 1997 Bryd-Hagel resolution was passed by the Senate
- A.
The U.S. had no policies in effect that combated climate change
- B.
Cap and trade initiatives were defeated in California and states likely New York and Massachusetts
- C.
The Obama Clean Power Plant to cut carbon emissions was declared unconstitutional
- D.
Greater than half U.S. adopted renewable portfolio standards
- E.
The federal wind production and solar investment tax credits were rescinded
- 75.In which of the following countries is the median age the lowest
- A.
Brazil
- B.
Turkey
- C.
Indonesia
- D.
Iran
- E.
Mexico
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