Macro Environment

Are the best way to construct scenarios because the present always repeats the past

Provide near perfect insight into the situation the U.S. faces in Iraq

Provide many possibilities from World War I to Munich to World War II to the start of the Cold War to Vietnam for understanding the U.S. experience in Iraq

Need little explanation

Show that young people are not the at the root of today’s wars

Always leads to inordinate amount of violence

Never leads to inordinate amount of violence

Only leads to an inordinate amount of violence when prior generations have been at peace

Only leads to an inordinate amount of violence when such special conditions are in place as charismatic leaders who take advantage of youth vulnerability, the existence of strong ideologies, a breakdown in the rule of law, and economic instability

Always has led to an inordinate amount of violence in Europe but not Asia

Typically lack peripheral vision

Cannot pay attention to the task at hand

Are easily distracted by disturbances that come into their environment

Easily pick up on non-obvious cues

Are good at doing more than one thing at the same time

Battery electric

Hybrids

Gasoline internal combustion

Plug-in hybrid

Diesel

Biodiesel

Nuclear power

Solar power

Wind power

Energy efficiency

Is nearly perfect

Depends on the algorithm employed

Is generally contained to rather superficial and incremental changes

Falls apart when people become really good at identifying black swans

Depends on reasoning from past examples and therefore is quite accurate

That hit the U.S. after the Second World War

In which high levels of inflation combine with low levels of economic growth

That is a contradiction in terms that economists have ruled out as possible

That was caused by President Nixon fixing the price of oil

That was caused by President Carter attempting to achieve energy independence

Diminished

Grew

Stayed about the same

Accelerated

Was entirely eliminated

Have only one option for advancing beyond the current internal combustion engine – hybrids

Have at least 4 ways they can advance beyond the current internal combustion engine – hybrids, plug-in hybrids, all electric vehicles, and fuel-cell based vehicles

Have no feasible alternatives to the internal combustion engine

Have feasible alternatives for internal combustion engines for cars but not trucks

Have feasible alternatives for internal combustion engines for trucks but not cars

Fine-tuned fiscal and monetary policies are the primary causes of economic growth

Fine-tuned fiscal and monetary policies are incidental to long-term economic growth

Except for institutional structure, government spending and taxes contribute the most to long term economic productivity and growth

Economic fluctuations can be entirely eliminated if a nation just invests in its human and physical capital

The short run cure for a recession is investment in R&D and technology

Honda and Toyota

Ford and General Motors

BMW and Volvo

Hyundai

None of the above

Just state uncertainty

Just effect uncertainty

State, effect, and response uncertainty

Effect and response uncertainty

State and effect uncertainty

Events in the world tend to follow events with definitive resolution

Trends tend to continue unabated

Trends move in a definitive negative or positive direction

Equally powerful and opposing trends can survive simultaneously without resolution for long periods of time

Weak signals result in the emergence of heroes, charismatic individuals, who tend to resolve historical tensions once and for all

Risk and uncertainty are the same

Risk and ambiguity are the same

Risk refers to situations where quantitative odds can be created with some degree of accuracy

Certainty refers to situations where quantitative odds can be confidently ascribed to outcomes

Ambiguity refers to conditions where qualitative outcomes cannot be described.

Investment by any U.S. citizen

Individuals earning >$200,000 a year with net worth >$1 million

Institutions like trusts, endowments, and pension funds

Those who sign documents that say they are willing to take on inordinate risk

Investors who agree not to ask for their money back for >5 years

Tire

Transmission

Brake

Glass

Electronic

Unrelated to political and economic challenges

Are related since youth violence can be partially neutralized by a strong state

Are related since governments effectively fight unemployment

Are related since the Keynesian revolution allowed governments to fine tune the economy to the point where unemployment is no longer a problem in most of the world

Are related because economic growth grows continuously and the business cycle no longer produces recessions

Greater business cycle stability

Greater business cycle instability

Continued wide fluctuations in the business cycle unchanged since the period of the Great Depression

Greater stability in unemployment, with greater volatility in inflation leading to a pathology of enhanced stagflation

Worldwide stagnation in economic growth

Predict the future

Forecast what happens

Eliminate all traces of uncertainty in strategy-making

Create stories about what might happen in order to influence the future

Create fixed roadmaps and final action plans that commit organizations for the long run

Was about three time as great in the second half decade of the 20th century than it was in the first

Was about three time as great in the first half decade of the 20th century than it was in the second

Remained steady throughout the 20th century despite the wars, revolutions, and economic instability

Declined in the 20th century because of the wars, revolutions, and economic instability

Declined in the second half of the 20th century after rising in the first half

An indefinite growth in world population

World population peaking around 2050 and then starting to decline

World population reaching 12 billion in 2100

World population reach 16 billion in 2100

World population declining to 1 billion in 2100

Prefer radical to incremental innovation because of the certainty of high payoffs

Prefer incremental to radical innovation because of the certainty of high payoffs

Prefer problem solving to revolutionary innovation because of the greater likelihood of success

Prefer revolutionary innovation to problem solving because of the greater likelihood of success

Prefer radical innovation to continuous improvement because of the

The costs of raising children

Social values

Religious values

National values

None of the above

The limited number of really poor people in the world

Better opportunities in serving the emerging middle classes

A homogenous market with little need for product differentiation

The failure of micro-credit Grameen efforts to spread cell phones in Bangladesh

The failure of telecom services to take off in Morocco

Grown/grown

Grown/fallen

Fallen/grown

Fallen/fallen

Stayed the same/stayed the same

Prairie and switch grass, wood, and animal waste

Corn, sugarcane, and soy

Algae

Tar sands

Stationary solar thermal systems

Mexico

Argentina

China

South Africa

Poland

China

Brazil

South Korea

Mexico

India

Was grudgingly accepted soon after Keynes published his General Theory and implemented successfully by governments throughout the world

Requires governments to spend more when there is a recession

Requires government to move toward a surplus when an economy is overheated and headed toward high levels of inflation

Necessitates a heavy hand since automatic stabilizers result in government expenditures declining when there is a recession

Has a positive long term effect in lowering interest rates as government deficits do not compete with private borrowing

Gradual increases of greenhouse gases despite potential climate disruption

Common responsibilities for all countries in the world to reduce global greenhouse emissions

Immediate rollback of greenhouse gas emissions to 1985 levels

Stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions only after further scientific clarity about their effects on climate and the environment

Common but differentiated responsibilities for emission stabilization (meaning that industrial countries must act first)

1 & 2

2 & 3

1 & 3

None of the above

All of the above

Equal to every country in the world

Below almost every country in the world

Above Japanese levels but below European levels

Equal to Japanese levels and above European levels

Equal to European levels for diesel fuels but below European levels for regular gasoline

Must receive Congressional approval when it raises or lowers interest rates

Must obtain approval from the executive branch of government when it buys or sells bonds to banks

Can raise the discount rate without Congressional approval but cannot tinker with reserve requirements without the full vote of the House and Senate

Is entirely independent of the executive and legislative branches in its oversight of the money supply

Only received independence from the executive and legislative branches to set monetary policy during the Ford administration

Did not change much between 1978-2003

Gradually became more strict each year between 1978-2003

Became more lenient in 1988, but otherwise did not change much between 1978-2003

Because more strict for trucks in 1988, but not for passenger cars

Became more strict for passenger cars in 1988, but not for trucks

Fiscal policy

Monetary policy

Fiscal and monetary policy

Micro-regulation

Micro-regulation, investment, technological investments, and international trade

Government inaction in the face of the magnitude of the crisis

Massive government stimulus spending but an inactive Federal Reserve

Massive government stimulus spending and Federal Reserve lowering of interest rates

A simple bailout of the banks but nothing more

A government takeover of the banking system, with majority government ownership of the major banks

Growing government surpluses during recessions

Declining prices during recessions

Enhanced government revenues from corporate taxes during recessions

Reduced government expenditures for unemployment compensation during recessions

Growing government deficits during recessions because of reduced taxable income and increased government obligations for program like unemployment insurance

Persists at historically disturbing levels

Is starting to slow to historically low levels and in some cases is shrinking

Remains very high in parts of Southern Europe in contrast to the rest of the world

Has tapered off and is statistically related to a significant drop in global violence

Has tapered off and is statistically related to a falloff in human dignity

Simplify many factors into a few fundamental ones that bound the future in terms of the possibilities

Brainstorm trends and other factors that might affect the future

Accept that the world is a closed system that can be controlled

Apply the many analytical and reductionist techniques that can be used to create predictable certainties out of amorphous trends

Hold on to the illusion that it is possible to forecast the future with great accuracy

Customers

Suppliers

Competitors

Substitutes

Customer, suppliers, competitors, substitutes, and new entrants

Is precisely the same as a demand side stimulus

Relies on lower marginal tax rates to induce private investment

Relies on high levels of government spending to induce private investment

Is meant to encourage lower income earners to avoid paying taxes

Is a tool used exclusively by West European Social Democratic governments to raise taxes

Improving the shared awareness of law enforcement and emergency response officials in carrying out various operations

Recognition of false identities on various identities cards and true identities through face and voice recognition

Mining large amounts of data that determines patterns and links in relationships

Nonlethal weapons that control crowds

Protecting aircrafts from explosives

If it reflects the status quo trend line

If it suggests surprise

If it tilts toward romance

If it tilts toward tragedy

If it tilts away from comedy

Were mainly financed by foreign borrowers

Provided evidence that Keynesian fiscal stimulus policy worked

Substantially raised private domestic investment

Had little or no effect on personal consumption

Led to a drop in U.S. GDP during the war years

The U.S. is the central pivot

Military spending skyrockets

Highly educated immigrants from Muslim countries move to the U.S. because of the collapse of their societies

Highly educated immigrants from Muslim countries move to the U.S. because of disease and hunger

Highly educated immigrants from Muslim countries move to the U.S. because of opportunity

Coalbed methane

Conventional discoveries of oil and natural gas

Offshore oil

Tar sands

Shale gas and tight oil

U.S.

China

Russia

Canada

Argentina

Shell

Amoco

ExxonMobil

BP

National oil companies like INOC and PDVSA