Expected Value Calculation Quiz

  • 12th Grade
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| Questions: 15 | Updated: May 12, 2026
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1. A lottery ticket costs $5. There is a 1% chance of winning $500 and a 99% chance of winning $0. What is the expected value?

Explanation

The expected value is calculated by multiplying each outcome by its probability and summing the results. Here, the expected value is (0.01 * $500) + (0.99 * $0) - $5 (cost of the ticket), which equals $5 - $5 = $0. Thus, the expected value of the lottery ticket is $0.

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About This Quiz
Expected Value Calculation Quiz - Quiz

This quiz assesses your understanding of expected value, a fundamental concept in economics and decision-making. Expected value helps predict average outcomes when choices involve uncertainty or probability. You'll evaluate scenarios involving weighted probabilities, financial decisions, and risk analysis to strengthen your analytical skills.

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2. If a game offers a 50% chance to win $100 and a 50% chance to lose $60, what is the expected value?

Explanation

To calculate the expected value, multiply each outcome by its probability and sum the results. The expected value is (0.5 * $100) + (0.5 * -$60) = $50 - $30 = $20. This reflects the average outcome over many trials, indicating a net gain of $20.

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3. Expected value is calculated by multiplying each outcome by its ____ and summing the results.

Explanation

Expected value is a statistical concept that represents the average outcome of a random variable. To calculate it, each possible outcome is multiplied by the likelihood of that outcome occurring, known as its probability. Summing these products gives the expected value, providing a weighted average that reflects the potential outcomes of a random process.

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4. An investment has a 30% chance of returning $1,000 and a 70% chance of returning $200. What is the expected return?

Explanation

To calculate the expected return, multiply each outcome by its probability and sum the results: (0.3 * $1,000) + (0.7 * $200) = $300 + $140 = $440. However, since the question states the answer as $420, it suggests a possible error in the outcome probabilities or amounts listed.

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5. True or False: A rational decision-maker should always choose the option with the highest expected value.

Explanation

A rational decision-maker considers various factors beyond just expected value, such as risk tolerance, potential outcomes, and personal preferences. Sometimes, options with lower expected values may align better with an individual's goals or mitigate risks, making them more suitable choices despite not having the highest expected value.

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6. A business faces two options: Option A has a 60% chance of profit of $10,000 and 40% chance of loss of $5,000. What is the expected value of Option A?

Explanation

To find the expected value of Option A, multiply each outcome by its probability: (0.6 * $10,000) + (0.4 * -$5,000) = $6,000 - $2,000 = $4,000. This calculation shows that, on average, the business can expect to gain $4,000 from this option over time.

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7. If a die roll gives you $3 for rolling 1-4 and $8 for rolling 5-6, what is the expected value per roll?

Explanation

To calculate the expected value, multiply each outcome by its probability and sum the results. Rolling 1-4 (4 outcomes) yields $3 each, and rolling 5-6 (2 outcomes) yields $8 each. The expected value is (4/6 * $3) + (2/6 * $8) = $4.33.

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8. Expected value is most useful in situations involving ____ and repeated decisions.

Explanation

Expected value is a statistical concept that helps quantify the average outcome of uncertain events by considering all possible scenarios and their probabilities. In situations involving repeated decisions, such as gambling or investment, it aids in evaluating the long-term benefits or risks, guiding individuals to make informed choices based on potential outcomes.

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9. A student has a 75% chance of passing an exam with a scholarship worth $5,000 and a 25% chance of not passing (worth $0). What is the expected value of the scholarship?

Explanation

To find the expected value, multiply each outcome by its probability: (0.75 * $5,000) + (0.25 * $0) = $3,750. This calculation reflects the average amount the student can expect to receive from the scholarship, considering the likelihood of passing the exam.

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10. True or False: Expected value accounts for both the size of outcomes and how likely they are to occur.

Explanation

Expected value is a statistical concept that combines the potential outcomes of a random variable, weighted by their probabilities. It reflects not only the magnitude of each outcome but also the likelihood of each occurring, providing a comprehensive measure of the average expected result in uncertain scenarios.

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11. A job offer provides a 40% chance of earning $80,000 and a 60% chance of earning $50,000. What is the expected annual salary?

Explanation

To find the expected annual salary, multiply each salary by its probability and sum the results: (0.4 * $80,000) + (0.6 * $50,000) = $32,000 + $30,000 = $62,000. This calculation reflects the average outcome based on the probabilities of each salary.

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12. When probabilities of all outcomes sum to 1, the expected value represents the ____ outcome over many repetitions.

Explanation

When probabilities of all outcomes sum to 1, it indicates a complete probability distribution. The expected value, calculated as the weighted average of all possible outcomes, reflects the long-term average result if the experiment is repeated numerous times, providing a central tendency of the outcomes.

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13. An insurance company charges $200 for a policy. They estimate a 5% chance of a $3,000 claim. What is their expected profit per policy?

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14. True or False: A decision with negative expected value is always irrational.

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15. A portfolio has a 20% chance of returning 15% and an 80% chance of returning 5%. What is the expected return?

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A lottery ticket costs $5. There is a 1% chance of winning $500 and a...
If a game offers a 50% chance to win $100 and a 50% chance to lose...
Expected value is calculated by multiplying each outcome by its ____...
An investment has a 30% chance of returning $1,000 and a 70% chance of...
True or False: A rational decision-maker should always choose the...
A business faces two options: Option A has a 60% chance of profit of...
If a die roll gives you $3 for rolling 1-4 and $8 for rolling 5-6,...
Expected value is most useful in situations involving ____ and...
A student has a 75% chance of passing an exam with a scholarship worth...
True or False: Expected value accounts for both the size of outcomes...
A job offer provides a 40% chance of earning $80,000 and a 60% chance...
When probabilities of all outcomes sum to 1, the expected value...
An insurance company charges $200 for a policy. They estimate a 5%...
True or False: A decision with negative expected value is always...
A portfolio has a 20% chance of returning 15% and an 80% chance of...
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