Practica Examen

1. 5. El punto donde el ingreso total es igual al costo total (es decir, cero ganancia) se llama

a) solución de ganancia cero.

b) solución de ganancia óptima.

c) punto de equilibrio.

d) solución de costo fijo.

The point where total revenue is equal to total cost, resulting in zero profit, is known as the point of equilibrium. At this point, the business is neither making a profit nor incurring a loss. It represents the level of output or sales where the company covers all its costs but does not generate any additional profit. This is an important concept in business and helps determine the minimum level of sales needed to break even.

Explanation

The point where total revenue is equal to total cost, resulting in zero profit, is known as the point of equilibrium. At this point, the business is neither making a profit nor incurring a loss. It represents the level of output or sales where the company covers all its costs but does not generate any additional profit. This is an important concept in business and helps determine the minimum level of sales needed to break even.

2. 6. El análisis cuantitativo en general se asocia con el uso de

a) modelos esquemáticos.

b) modelos físicos.

c) modelos matemáticos.

d) modelos a escala.

Quantitative analysis involves the use of mathematical models to analyze and interpret data. This type of analysis focuses on numerical data and uses mathematical calculations to draw conclusions and make predictions. Models esquemáticos (schematic models) and modelos físicos (physical models) are not directly associated with quantitative analysis as they are more related to visual representations or physical simulations. Modelos a escala (scaled models) may be used in some cases, but they are not as commonly associated with quantitative analysis as modelos matemáticos (mathematical models).

Explanation

Quantitative analysis involves the use of mathematical models to analyze and interpret data. This type of analysis focuses on numerical data and uses mathematical calculations to draw conclusions and make predictions. Models esquemáticos (schematic models) and modelos físicos (physical models) are not directly associated with quantitative analysis as they are more related to visual representations or physical simulations. Modelos a escala (scaled models) may be used in some cases, but they are not as commonly associated with quantitative analysis as modelos matemáticos (mathematical models).

3. Al analizar un problema, usted por lo general debería estudiar.

a) los aspectos cualitativos.

b) los aspectos cuantitativos.

c) tanto a) como b).

When analyzing a problem, it is generally recommended to study both qualitative and quantitative aspects. This means that one should consider both the qualitative factors, such as subjective opinions, observations, and experiences, as well as the quantitative factors, such as numerical data, statistics, and measurements. By considering both aspects, a more comprehensive understanding of the problem can be achieved, leading to more effective problem-solving and decision-making.

Explanation

When analyzing a problem, it is generally recommended to study both qualitative and quantitative aspects. This means that one should consider both the qualitative factors, such as subjective opinions, observations, and experiences, as well as the quantitative factors, such as numerical data, statistics, and measurements. By considering both aspects, a more comprehensive understanding of the problem can be achieved, leading to more effective problem-solving and decision-making.

4. Frederick Winslow Taylor

a) fue un investigador militar durante la Segunda Guerra Mundial.

b) fue el pionero en los principios de la administración científica.

c) desarrolló el uso del algoritmo para el AC.

d)todo lo anterior.

Frederick Winslow Taylor fue el pionero en los principios de la administración científica. Este enfoque se basa en la aplicación de métodos científicos para mejorar la eficiencia y productividad en los procesos de trabajo. Taylor desarrolló ideas revolucionarias en el campo de la administración, como la estandarización de métodos de trabajo, la división del trabajo y el estudio de tiempos y movimientos. Sus contribuciones sentaron las bases para la gestión moderna y su enfoque científico ha sido ampliamente adoptado en la industria y los negocios.

Explanation

Frederick Winslow Taylor fue el pionero en los principios de la administración científica. Este enfoque se basa en la aplicación de métodos científicos para mejorar la eficiencia y productividad en los procesos de trabajo. Taylor desarrolló ideas revolucionarias en el campo de la administración, como la estandarización de métodos de trabajo, la división del trabajo y el estudio de tiempos y movimientos. Sus contribuciones sentaron las bases para la gestión moderna y su enfoque científico ha sido ampliamente adoptado en la industria y los negocios.

5. 10. Un análisis para determinar cuánto cambiaría una solución si se modifican el modelo o los datos de entrada se llama a) análisis de sensibilidad o pos óptimo. b) análisis esquemático o icónico. c) condicionamiento futurama. d) tanto b) como c).

a

b

c

d

The correct answer is "a) análisis de sensibilidad o pos óptimo." Análisis de sensibilidad, also known as sensitivity analysis, is a method used to determine how much a solution would change if the model or input data is modified. It helps in understanding the impact of variations in the variables on the overall outcome. The other options, b) análisis esquemático o icónico and c) condicionamiento futurama, do not accurately describe the concept of analyzing the change in a solution due to modifications in the model or input data. Option d) tanto b) como c) is incorrect because only option a) accurately represents the concept.

Explanation

The correct answer is "a) análisis de sensibilidad o pos óptimo." Análisis de sensibilidad, also known as sensitivity analysis, is a method used to determine how much a solution would change if the model or input data is modified. It helps in understanding the impact of variations in the variables on the overall outcome. The other options, b) análisis esquemático o icónico and c) condicionamiento futurama, do not accurately describe the concept of analyzing the change in a solution due to modifications in the model or input data. Option d) tanto b) como c) is incorrect because only option a) accurately represents the concept.

6. 1. Los modelos cualitativos de pronósticos incluyen a) análisis de regresión. b) método Dephi. c) modelos de series de tiempo. d) líneas de tendencia.

a

b

c

d

The correct answer is "b) método Delphi." The explanation for this answer is that qualitative forecasting models include the Delphi method. The Delphi method is a structured approach to obtain expert opinions and consensus on future events or trends. It involves collecting and analyzing input from a panel of experts through multiple rounds of surveys or questionnaires. This method is useful when there is limited historical data available or when the future is uncertain and subjective opinions are needed.

Explanation

The correct answer is "b) método Delphi." The explanation for this answer is that qualitative forecasting models include the Delphi method. The Delphi method is a structured approach to obtain expert opinions and consensus on future events or trends. It involves collecting and analyzing input from a panel of experts through multiple rounds of surveys or questionnaires. This method is useful when there is limited historical data available or when the future is uncertain and subjective opinions are needed.

7. 8. En el suavizamiento exponencial, si desea dar un peso significativo a las observaciones más recientes, entonces, la constante de suavizamiento debería ser a) cercana a 0. b) cercana a 1. c) cercana a 0.5. d) menor que el error

a

b

c

d

En el suavizamiento exponencial, la constante de suavizamiento determina el peso que se le da a las observaciones más recientes. Si se desea dar un peso significativo a las observaciones más recientes, la constante de suavizamiento debería ser cercana a 1. Esto significa que las observaciones más recientes tendrán un impacto mayor en la predicción del modelo. Por lo tanto, la respuesta correcta es la opción b) cercana a 1.

Explanation

En el suavizamiento exponencial, la constante de suavizamiento determina el peso que se le da a las observaciones más recientes. Si se desea dar un peso significativo a las observaciones más recientes, la constante de suavizamiento debería ser cercana a 1. Esto significa que las observaciones más recientes tendrán un impacto mayor en la predicción del modelo. Por lo tanto, la respuesta correcta es la opción b) cercana a 1.

8. 11. Un pronóstico simple para las ventas mensuales es equivalente a a) un modelo de promedio móvil de un mes. b) un modelo de suavizamiento exponencial con 0. c) un modelo estacional donde el índice estacional es de 1. d) ninguno de los anteriores.

a

b

c

d

A simple forecast for monthly sales is equivalent to a one-month moving average model.

Explanation

A simple forecast for monthly sales is equivalent to a one-month moving average model.

9. 4. Una entrada para un modelo (como el costo variable por unidad o el costo fijo) es un ejemplo de

a) una variable de decisión.

b) un parámetro.

c) un algoritmo.

d)una variable estocástica.

An entrada para un modelo, como el costo variable por unidad o el costo fijo, se considera un parámetro. Un parámetro es una cantidad que se utiliza en un modelo para representar una característica específica del problema, y se mantiene constante durante todo el proceso de toma de decisiones. En este caso, el costo variable por unidad y el costo fijo son valores que se utilizan para calcular el costo total en el modelo, pero no son decisiones que el tomador de decisiones pueda cambiar o ajustar. Por lo tanto, se clasifican como parámetros.

Explanation

An entrada para un modelo, como el costo variable por unidad o el costo fijo, se considera un parámetro. Un parámetro es una cantidad que se utiliza en un modelo para representar una característica específica del problema, y se mantiene constante durante todo el proceso de toma de decisiones. En este caso, el costo variable por unidad y el costo fijo son valores que se utilizan para calcular el costo total en el modelo, pero no son decisiones que el tomador de decisiones pueda cambiar o ajustar. Por lo tanto, se clasifican como parámetros.

10. 11. En la distribución normal, 95.45% de la población está dentro de a) 1 desviación estándar de la media. b) 2 desviación estándar de la media. c) 3 desviación estándar de la media. d) 4 desviación estándar de la media.

a

b

c

d

In a normal distribution, 95.45% of the population is within 2 standard deviations of the mean. This means that option b) "2 desviación estándar de la media" is the correct answer.

Explanation

In a normal distribution, 95.45% of the population is within 2 standard deviations of the mean. This means that option b) "2 desviación estándar de la media" is the correct answer.

11. 10. Es común que las ventas de una compañía sean más altas en los meses de verano que en los de invierno. Esta variación se llamaría a) tendencia. b) factor estacional. c) factor aleatorio. d) factor cíclico.

a

b

c

d

It is common for a company's sales to be higher in the summer months than in the winter months. This variation is referred to as a seasonal factor.

Explanation

It is common for a company's sales to be higher in the summer months than in the winter months. This variation is referred to as a seasonal factor.

12. 15. Si el modelo de descomposición multiplicativa se aplica para pronosticar las ventas diarias para una tienda al menudeo, ¿cuántas estaciones debe haber? a) 4 b) 7 c) 12 d) 365

a

b

c

d

The correct answer is b) 7. In a multiplicative decomposition model, the time series data is decomposed into three components: trend, seasonality, and random variation. The seasonality component represents the repeating patterns or cycles in the data. For daily sales data, there are typically seven days in a week, so there should be seven seasons or stations to capture the weekly seasonality. Therefore, the model should have seven stations.

Explanation

The correct answer is b) 7. In a multiplicative decomposition model, the time series data is decomposed into three components: trend, seasonality, and random variation. The seasonality component represents the repeating patterns or cycles in the data. For daily sales data, there are typically seven days in a week, so there should be seven seasons or stations to capture the weekly seasonality. Therefore, the model should have seven stations.

13. 7. Lo más que una persona debería pagar por la información perfecta es a) el VEIP. b) el VME máximo menos el VME mínimo. c) la POE máxima. d) el VME máximo.

a

b

c

d

The given correct answer is "a) el VEIP." This answer suggests that the most that a person should pay for perfect information is the VEIP (Valor Esperado de la Información Perfecta), which translates to the Expected Value of Perfect Information. This means that the maximum amount a person should be willing to pay for perfect information is the expected value of the information, taking into account the potential benefits and risks associated with it.

Explanation

The given correct answer is "a) el VEIP." This answer suggests that the most that a person should pay for perfect information is the VEIP (Valor Esperado de la Información Perfecta), which translates to the Expected Value of Perfect Information. This means that the maximum amount a person should be willing to pay for perfect information is the expected value of the information, taking into account the potential benefits and risks associated with it.

14. Si tan solo puede ocurrir un evento en cualquier ensayo, entonces se dice que los eventos son a) independientes. b) exhaustivos. c) mutuamente excluyentes. d) continuos.

a

b

c

d

If only one event can occur in any trial, then it is said that the events are mutually exclusive. This means that the events cannot happen at the same time or overlap in any way. In other words, if one event happens, the other event cannot happen.

Explanation

If only one event can occur in any trial, then it is said that the events are mutually exclusive. This means that the events cannot happen at the same time or overlap in any way. In other words, if one event happens, the other event cannot happen.

15. El área total bajo la curva de cualquier distribución continua debe ser igual a a) 1. b) 0. c) 0.5. d) ninguno de los anteriores.

a

b

c

d

The total area under the curve of any continuous distribution represents the probability of all possible outcomes occurring. Since the sum of all probabilities must equal 1, the correct answer is a) 1.

Explanation

The total area under the curve of any continuous distribution represents the probability of all possible outcomes occurring. Since the sum of all probabilities must equal 1, the correct answer is a) 1.

16. 2. Un modelo de pronósticos que tan solo usa datos históricos para la variable que se pronostica se llama a) modelo de series de tiempo. b) modelo causal. c) modelo Delphi. d) modelo variable.

a

b

c

d

A model that only uses historical data for the variable being forecasted is called a time series model.

Explanation

A model that only uses historical data for the variable being forecasted is called a time series model.

17. La raíz cuadrada de la varianza es a) el valor esperado. b) la desviación estándar. c) el área bajo la curva. d) todo lo anterior.

a

b

c

d

The correct answer is b) la desviación estándar. The square root of the variance is equal to the standard deviation. The variance measures the spread or dispersion of a set of data, while the standard deviation is a measure of how spread out the values are from the mean. Taking the square root of the variance allows us to express the standard deviation in the same units as the original data, making it easier to interpret and compare. Therefore, the square root of the variance is the standard deviation.

Explanation

The correct answer is b) la desviación estándar. The square root of the variance is equal to the standard deviation. The variance measures the spread or dispersion of a set of data, while the standard deviation is a measure of how spread out the values are from the mean. Taking the square root of the variance allows us to express the standard deviation in the same units as the original data, making it easier to interpret and compare. Therefore, the square root of the variance is the standard deviation.

18. 9) Un árbol de decisiones es preferible a una tabla de decisiones cuando a) deben tomarse varias decisiones secuenciales. b) están disponibles las probabilidades c) se usa el criterio maximax. d) el objetivo es maximizar el arrepentimiento

a

b

c

d

An decision tree is preferable to a decision table when multiple sequential decisions need to be made. Decision trees allow for a step-by-step analysis of the decision-making process, taking into account various options and their potential outcomes. This makes it easier to understand and evaluate the consequences of each decision, leading to more informed and effective choices. On the other hand, decision tables are better suited for situations where the decisions are independent of each other and can be evaluated separately.

Explanation

An decision tree is preferable to a decision table when multiple sequential decisions need to be made. Decision trees allow for a step-by-step analysis of the decision-making process, taking into account various options and their potential outcomes. This makes it easier to understand and evaluate the consequences of each decision, leading to more informed and effective choices. On the other hand, decision tables are better suited for situations where the decisions are independent of each other and can be evaluated separately.

19. 14) En un árbol de decisiones, una vez que se dibuja el árbol y se colocan los pagos y las probabilidades, el análisis (cálculo del VME y elección de la mejor alternativa) a) se hace trabajando hacia atrás (iniciando en la derecha y moviéndose hacia la izquierda). b) se hace trabajando hacia adelante (comenzando en la izquierda y moviéndose hacia la derecha). c) se hace iniciando hasta arriba del árbol y moviéndose hacia abajo. d) se hace comenzando en la parte inferior del árbol y moviéndose hacia arriba.

a

b

c

d

In a decision tree, the analysis is done by working backwards from the right to the left. This means that the calculations of the expected monetary value (VME) and the selection of the best alternative are done by considering the outcomes and probabilities at the end of the branches first, and then moving towards the root of the tree. This approach allows for a systematic evaluation of the different paths and outcomes in the decision tree, leading to the determination of the best course of action.

Explanation

In a decision tree, the analysis is done by working backwards from the right to the left. This means that the calculations of the expected monetary value (VME) and the selection of the best alternative are done by considering the outcomes and probabilities at the end of the branches first, and then moving towards the root of the tree. This approach allows for a systematic evaluation of the different paths and outcomes in the decision tree, leading to the determination of the best course of action.

20. 13. Si dos eventos son mutuamente excluyentes, entonces, la probabilidad de la intersección de estos dos eventos es igual a a) 0. b) 0.5. c) 1.0. d) no puede determinarse sin más información.

a

b

c

d

If two events are mutually exclusive, it means that they cannot occur at the same time. In other words, the intersection of these two events is empty, meaning there are no common outcomes between them. Therefore, the probability of the intersection of these two events is equal to 0.

Explanation

If two events are mutually exclusive, it means that they cannot occur at the same time. In other words, the intersection of these two events is empty, meaning there are no common outcomes between them. Therefore, the probability of the intersection of these two events is equal to 0.

21. 6. Al usar el criterio de realismo (criterio de Hurwicz), el coeficiente de realismo ( ) a) es la probabilidad de un buen estado de naturaleza. b) describe el grado de optimismo del tomador de decisiones. c) describe el grado de pesimismo del tomador de decisiones. d) usualmente es menor que cero.

a

b

c

d

The correct answer is b) describes the degree of optimism of the decision-maker. This means that the coefficient of realism in the Hurwicz criterion reflects how optimistic or pessimistic the decision-maker is when evaluating the potential outcomes of a decision. A higher coefficient indicates a greater degree of optimism, while a lower coefficient indicates a greater degree of pessimism.

Explanation

The correct answer is b) describes the degree of optimism of the decision-maker. This means that the coefficient of realism in the Hurwicz criterion reflects how optimistic or pessimistic the decision-maker is when evaluating the potential outcomes of a decision. A higher coefficient indicates a greater degree of optimism, while a lower coefficient indicates a greater degree of pessimism.

22. 16) Si una persona racional elige una alternativa que no maximiza el VME, esperaríamos que esta alternativa a) maximice el VME. b) maximice la utilidad esperada. c) minimice la utilidad esperada. d) tenga una utilidad de 0 asociada a cada pago posible.

a

b

c

d

If a rational person chooses an alternative that does not maximize the VME, we would expect that this alternative maximizes the expected utility. This means that the person is making a decision based on the potential outcomes and their associated utilities, rather than solely focusing on the expected monetary value. The rational person is considering the overall utility or satisfaction they would gain from each option, rather than just the monetary value. Therefore, the correct answer is b) maximize the expected utility.

Explanation

If a rational person chooses an alternative that does not maximize the VME, we would expect that this alternative maximizes the expected utility. This means that the person is making a decision based on the potential outcomes and their associated utilities, rather than solely focusing on the expected monetary value. The rational person is considering the overall utility or satisfaction they would gain from each option, rather than just the monetary value. Therefore, the correct answer is b) maximize the expected utility.

23. 6. ¿Cuál de los siguientes puede ser negativo? a) DMA. b) Sesgo. c) EMAP. d) ECM.

a

b

c

d

The correct answer is b) Sesgo. Sesgo is a Spanish term that translates to "bias" in English. Bias can be negative as it refers to a tendency or prejudice in favor of or against something or someone. Therefore, it is possible for bias to have a negative impact or connotation.

Explanation

The correct answer is b) Sesgo. Sesgo is a Spanish term that translates to "bias" in English. Bias can be negative as it refers to a tendency or prejudice in favor of or against something or someone. Therefore, it is possible for bias to have a negative impact or connotation.

24. 1. En la terminología de la teoría de decisiones, un curso de acción o una estrategia que puede elegir un tomador de decisiones se llama a) pago. b) alternativa. c) estado de naturaleza. d) ninguna de los anteriores.

a

b

c

d

In the terminology of decision theory, a course of action or strategy that a decision maker can choose is called an alternative.

Explanation

In the terminology of decision theory, a course of action or strategy that a decision maker can choose is called an alternative.

25. 4. ¿Cuál de los siguientes es un criterio para tomar decisiones que se usa en la toma de decisiones con riesgo? a) criterio del valor monetario esperado. b) criterio de Huwicz (de realismo). c) criterio optimista (maximax). d) criterio de probabilidades iguales

a

b

c

d

El criterio del valor monetario esperado es un criterio utilizado en la toma de decisiones con riesgo. Este criterio implica asignar valores monetarios a los posibles resultados de una decisión y luego calcular el valor esperado de cada opción. La opción con el valor monetario esperado más alto se considera la mejor elección.

Explanation

El criterio del valor monetario esperado es un criterio utilizado en la toma de decisiones con riesgo. Este criterio implica asignar valores monetarios a los posibles resultados de una decisión y luego calcular el valor esperado de cada opción. La opción con el valor monetario esperado más alto se considera la mejor elección.

26. 8. Un modelo determinístico es aquel para el que a) hay cierta incertidumbre acerca de los parámetros usados en el modelo. b) hay un resultado medible. c) todos los parámetros del modelo se conocen con total certidumbre. d) no existe software disponible.

a

b

c

d

A deterministic model is one in which all the parameters of the model are known with total certainty. In other words, there is no uncertainty or randomness involved in the model. This means that the model will always produce the same result given the same inputs. Therefore, option c) is the correct answer as it accurately describes a deterministic model.

Explanation

A deterministic model is one in which all the parameters of the model are known with total certainty. In other words, there is no uncertainty or randomness involved in the model. This means that the model will always produce the same result given the same inputs. Therefore, option c) is the correct answer as it accurately describes a deterministic model.

27. 2. Las nuevas probabilidades que se encontraron con el teorema de Bayes se denominan a) probabilidades previas. b) probabilidades posteriores. c) probabilidades bayesianas. d) probabilidades conjuntas.

a

b

c

d

The new probabilities that are found with the Bayes' theorem are called posterior probabilities. These probabilities are calculated based on the prior probabilities and the likelihood of the event occurring. The Bayes' theorem allows for updating the prior probabilities with new evidence or information to obtain more accurate posterior probabilities.

Explanation

The new probabilities that are found with the Bayes' theorem are called posterior probabilities. These probabilities are calculated based on the prior probabilities and the likelihood of the event occurring. The Bayes' theorem allows for updating the prior probabilities with new evidence or information to obtain more accurate posterior probabilities.

28. 14. Si P(A) 5 0.4, P(B) 5 0.5 y P(A y B) 5 0.2, entonces, P(A|B) 5 a) 0.80. b) 0.50. c) 0.10 d) 0.40. e) ninguno de los anteriores

a

b

c

d

e

The correct answer is b) 0.50. The probability of A given B (P(A|B)) is calculated by dividing the probability of A and B occurring together (P(A and B)) by the probability of B occurring (P(B)). In this case, P(A and B) is 0.2 and P(B) is 0.5. Therefore, P(A|B) = 0.2/0.5 = 0.4.

Explanation

The correct answer is b) 0.50. The probability of A given B (P(A|B)) is calculated by dividing the probability of A and B occurring together (P(A and B)) by the probability of B occurring (P(B)). In this case, P(A and B) is 0.2 and P(B) is 0.5. Therefore, P(A|B) = 0.2/0.5 = 0.4.

29. 9. El término algoritmo a) se debe a Algorismus. b) se debe a un matemático árabe del siglo IX. c) describe una serie de pasos o procedimientos que se repiten. d) todo lo anterior.

a

b

c

d

The correct answer is d) todo lo anterior. This means that the term "algoritmo" is due to Algorismus, a mathematician from the 9th century, and it also describes a series of steps or procedures that are repeated.

Explanation

The correct answer is d) todo lo anterior. This means that the term "algoritmo" is due to Algorismus, a mathematician from the 9th century, and it also describes a series of steps or procedures that are repeated.

30. 11. Las variables de decisión son a) controlables. b) incontrolables. c) parámetros. d) valores numéricos constantes asociados con cualquier problema complejo.

a

b

c

d

The correct answer is "a) controlables." This means that decision variables can be controlled or manipulated in a problem. Decision variables are the unknown quantities that need to be determined in order to solve a problem or make a decision. They represent the choices or decisions that can be made in a given situation.

Explanation

The correct answer is "a) controlables." This means that decision variables can be controlled or manipulated in a problem. Decision variables are the unknown quantities that need to be determined in order to solve a problem or make a decision. They represent the choices or decisions that can be made in a given situation.

31. 4. Para calcular la varianza se necesita conocer a) los valores posibles de la variable. b) el valor esperado de la variable. c) la probabilidad de cada valor posible de la variable. d) todo lo anterior.

a

b

c

d

To calculate the variance, one needs to know all the given options. The values of the variable are needed to calculate the differences from the mean, the expected value of the variable is needed to calculate the mean, and the probability of each possible value is needed to weigh those differences. Therefore, all of the options (a, b, c) are necessary to calculate the variance, making option d the correct answer.

Explanation

To calculate the variance, one needs to know all the given options. The values of the variable are needed to calculate the differences from the mean, the expected value of the variable is needed to calculate the mean, and the probability of each possible value is needed to weigh those differences. Therefore, all of the options (a, b, c) are necessary to calculate the variance, making option d the correct answer.

32. 12. Si una distribución normal tiene media de 200 y desviación estándar de 10, ¿99.7% de la población cae dentro de qué intervalo de valores? a) 170–230 b) 180–220 c) 190–210 d) 175–225 e) 170–220

a

b

c

d

e

The correct answer is a) 170-230. In a normal distribution, approximately 99.7% of the population falls within three standard deviations of the mean. Since the mean is 200 and the standard deviation is 10, three standard deviations below the mean would be 200 - (3 * 10) = 170, and three standard deviations above the mean would be 200 + (3 * 10) = 230. Therefore, the interval of values within which 99.7% of the population falls is 170-230.

Explanation

The correct answer is a) 170-230. In a normal distribution, approximately 99.7% of the population falls within three standard deviations of the mean. Since the mean is 200 and the standard deviation is 10, three standard deviations below the mean would be 200 - (3 * 10) = 170, and three standard deviations above the mean would be 200 + (3 * 10) = 230. Therefore, the interval of values within which 99.7% of the population falls is 170-230.

33. 11) En un árbol de decisiones, en cada nodo de estado de naturaleza, a) se elige la alternativa con el mayor VME. b) se calcula el VME. c) se suman todas las probabilidades. d) se elige la rama con la probabilidad más alta.

a

b

c

d

In a decision tree, at each node of nature state, the VME (Expected Monetary Value) is calculated. This means that the correct answer is b) se calcula el VME.

Explanation

In a decision tree, at each node of nature state, the VME (Expected Monetary Value) is calculated. This means that the correct answer is b) se calcula el VME.

34. 13) La eficiencia de la información muestral a) es el VEIM/(VME máximo sin IM) expresado como porcentaje. b) es el VEIP/VEIM expresado como porcentaje. c) sería de 100% si la información muestral fuera perfecta. d) se calcula usando tan solo el VEIP y el máximo VME

a

b

c

d

The efficiency of the information is measured by how close the VEIP (Valor Esperado de Información Perfecta) is to the maximum VME (Valor Máximo Esperado) without information. In other words, it represents how well the sample information approximates the best possible information. Therefore, option c is correct as it states that the efficiency would be 100% if the sample information was perfect, indicating a perfect approximation of the maximum expected value without information.

Explanation

The efficiency of the information is measured by how close the VEIP (Valor Esperado de Información Perfecta) is to the maximum VME (Valor Máximo Esperado) without information. In other words, it represents how well the sample information approximates the best possible information. Therefore, option c is correct as it states that the efficiency would be 100% if the sample information was perfect, indicating a perfect approximation of the maximum expected value without information.

35. Las probabilidades de todos los valores posibles de una variable aleatoria discreta a) pueden ser mayores que 1. b) pueden ser negativas en algunas ocasiones. c) deben sumar 1. d) están representadas por el área bajo la curva.

a

b

c

d

The probabilities of all possible values of a discrete random variable must sum up to 1. This is because in a probability distribution, the total probability of all possible outcomes must be equal to 1.

Explanation

The probabilities of all possible values of a discrete random variable must sum up to 1. This is because in a probability distribution, the total probability of all possible outcomes must be equal to 1.

36. 8. El criterio de la mínima POE siempre dará como resultado la misma decisión que a) el criterio maximax. b) el criterio de arrepentimiento minimax. c) el criterio del VME máximo. d) el criterio de probabilidades iguales.

a

b

c

d

The explanation for the correct answer (c) is that the minimum EMV criterion will always result in the same decision as the maximum EMV criterion. EMV stands for Expected Monetary Value, which is a measure used in decision analysis to calculate the expected value of different alternatives. The minimum EMV criterion focuses on minimizing potential losses, while the maximum EMV criterion focuses on maximizing potential gains. Since the question states that the minimum EMV criterion will always result in the same decision as the maximum EMV criterion, it implies that both criteria will lead to the same decision outcome.

Explanation

The explanation for the correct answer (c) is that the minimum EMV criterion will always result in the same decision as the maximum EMV criterion. EMV stands for Expected Monetary Value, which is a measure used in decision analysis to calculate the expected value of different alternatives. The minimum EMV criterion focuses on minimizing potential losses, while the maximum EMV criterion focuses on maximizing potential gains. Since the question states that the minimum EMV criterion will always result in the same decision as the maximum EMV criterion, it implies that both criteria will lead to the same decision outcome.

37. 7. ¿Con qué paso del análisis cuantitativo casi siempre se asocia el análisis de sensibilidad? a) definición del problema b) recolección de datos c) implementación de resultados d) análisis de resultados

a

b

c

d

The correct answer is d) análisis de resultados. The analysis of sensitivity is often associated with the analysis of results because it involves examining how changes in certain variables or parameters affect the overall outcome or results of a quantitative analysis. This step helps to identify the most critical factors that may impact the results and allows for the evaluation of different scenarios or alternatives.

Explanation

The correct answer is d) análisis de resultados. The analysis of sensitivity is often associated with the analysis of results because it involves examining how changes in certain variables or parameters affect the overall outcome or results of a quantitative analysis. This step helps to identify the most critical factors that may impact the results and allows for the evaluation of different scenarios or alternatives.

38. 13. Si los componentes estacionales y de tendencia están presentes en una serie de tiempo, entonces, los índices estacionales a) deberían calcularse con base en el promedio general. b) deberían calcularse con base en el PMC. c) serán mayores que 1. d) deberían ignorarse al desarrollar un pronóstico

a

b

c

d

If the seasonal and trend components are present in a time series, then the seasonal indices should be calculated based on the PMC (Percentage of Mean Centering) method. This method involves dividing each observation in the time series by the average of all observations in the same season. By calculating the seasonal indices in this way, it helps to remove the effects of the trend and focus on the seasonal patterns in the data. Therefore, option b is the correct answer.

Explanation

If the seasonal and trend components are present in a time series, then the seasonal indices should be calculated based on the PMC (Percentage of Mean Centering) method. This method involves dividing each observation in the time series by the average of all observations in the same season. By calculating the seasonal indices in this way, it helps to remove the effects of the trend and focus on the seasonal patterns in the data. Therefore, option b is the correct answer.

39. ¿Cuál de los siguientes es un ejemplo de distribución discreta? a) la distribución normal. b) la distribución exponencial. c) la distribución de Poisson. d) la distribución Z.

a

b

c

d

La distribución de Poisson es un ejemplo de distribución discreta. Esta distribución se utiliza para modelar eventos que ocurren de forma aleatoria en un intervalo de tiempo o espacio, como el número de llamadas telefónicas recibidas en una hora o el número de accidentes automovilísticos en un día. A diferencia de las distribuciones normal, exponencial y Z, que son distribuciones continuas, la distribución de Poisson solo toma valores enteros y no puede tener valores decimales.

Explanation

La distribución de Poisson es un ejemplo de distribución discreta. Esta distribución se utiliza para modelar eventos que ocurren de forma aleatoria en un intervalo de tiempo o espacio, como el número de llamadas telefónicas recibidas en una hora o el número de accidentes automovilísticos en un día. A diferencia de las distribuciones normal, exponencial y Z, que son distribuciones continuas, la distribución de Poisson solo toma valores enteros y no puede tener valores decimales.

40. 15. Si P(A) 5 0.4, P(B) 5 0.5 y P(A y B) 5 0.2, entonces, P(A o B) 5 a) 0.7. b) 0.9. c) 1.1. d) 0.2. e) ninguno de los anteriores.

a

b

c

d

e

The probability of A or B occurring, denoted as P(A or B), can be calculated using the formula P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B). In this case, P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.5, and P(A and B) = 0.2. Plugging these values into the formula, we get P(A or B) = 0.4 + 0.5 - 0.2 = 0.7. Therefore, the correct answer is a) 0.7.

Explanation

The probability of A or B occurring, denoted as P(A or B), can be calculated using the formula P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B). In this case, P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.5, and P(A and B) = 0.2. Plugging these values into the formula, we get P(A or B) = 0.4 + 0.5 - 0.2 = 0.7. Therefore, the correct answer is a) 0.7.

41. 2. En la teoría de las decisiones, las probabilidades están asociadas con a) pagos. b) alternativas. c) estados de naturaleza. d) ninguna de los anteriores.

a

b

c

d

In decision theory, probabilities are associated with states of nature. This means that when making decisions, probabilities are used to represent the likelihood of different outcomes or events occurring. These probabilities are then used to evaluate the potential consequences or payoffs associated with each decision alternative. Therefore, option c) states of nature is the correct answer as it accurately describes the association between probabilities and decision-making.

Explanation

In decision theory, probabilities are associated with states of nature. This means that when making decisions, probabilities are used to represent the likelihood of different outcomes or events occurring. These probabilities are then used to evaluate the potential consequences or payoffs associated with each decision alternative. Therefore, option c) states of nature is the correct answer as it accurately describes the association between probabilities and decision-making.

42. El análisis cuantitativo es

a) un enfoque lógico para la toma de decisiones.

b) un enfoque racional para la toma de decisiones.

c)un enfoque científico para la toma de decisiones.

d) todo lo anterior

Quantitative analysis is an approach that involves logical, rational, and scientific methods for decision-making. It combines these three aspects to provide a comprehensive and well-informed approach to decision-making. Therefore, the correct answer is d) todo lo anterior, which means "all of the above" in English.

Explanation

Quantitative analysis is an approach that involves logical, rational, and scientific methods for decision-making. It combines these three aspects to provide a comprehensive and well-informed approach to decision-making. Therefore, the correct answer is d) todo lo anterior, which means "all of the above" in English.

43. 10. La probabilidad de dos o más eventos independientes que ocurren es a) la probabilidad marginal. b) la probabilidad simple. c) la probabilidad condicional. d) la probabilidad conjunta. e) todo lo anterior.

a

b

c

d

e

The correct answer is d) la probabilidad conjunta. This is because the question is asking about the probability of two or more independent events occurring together, which is referred to as the joint probability or the probability conjunta.

Explanation

The correct answer is d) la probabilidad conjunta. This is because the question is asking about the probability of two or more independent events occurring together, which is referred to as the joint probability or the probability conjunta.

44. 12. Si el índice estacional para enero es 0.80, entonces, las ventas de enero tienden a a) ser 80% más altas que en un mes promedio. b) ser 20% más altas que en un mes promedio. c) ser 80% más bajas que en un mes promedio. d) ser 20% más bajas que en un mes promedio

a

b

c

d

If the seasonal index for January is 0.80, it means that the sales in January tend to be 20% lower than the average month.

Explanation

If the seasonal index for January is 0.80, it means that the sales in January tend to be 20% lower than the average month.

45. 3. Si el tomador de decisiones dispone de probabilidades, entonces el entorno de la toma de decisiones se llama a) de certidumbre. b) de incertidumbre. c) de riesgo. d) ninguna de los anteriores.

a

b

c

d

If the decision maker has probabilities, then the environment of the decision making is called "de riesgo" or "of risk." This suggests that the decision maker has some information about the likelihood of different outcomes and can assess the potential risks associated with each option. This is different from a situation of certainty, where the outcomes are known with complete confidence, or a situation of uncertainty, where the probabilities are unknown or cannot be estimated.

Explanation

If the decision maker has probabilities, then the environment of the decision making is called "de riesgo" or "of risk." This suggests that the decision maker has some information about the likelihood of different outcomes and can assess the potential risks associated with each option. This is different from a situation of certainty, where the outcomes are known with complete confidence, or a situation of uncertainty, where the probabilities are unknown or cannot be estimated.

46. 10) El teorema de Bayes se utiliza para revisar las probabilidades. Las nuevas probabilidades (revisadas) se llaman a) probabilidades previas. b) probabilidades muestrales. c) probabilidades del estudio. d) probabilidades posteriores.

a

b

c

d

The correct answer is d) probabilidades posteriores. The explanation is that Bayes' theorem is used to update probabilities based on new information. The updated probabilities are called posterior probabilities.

Explanation

The correct answer is d) probabilidades posteriores. The explanation is that Bayes' theorem is used to update probabilities based on new information. The updated probabilities are called posterior probabilities.

47. 5. ¿Cuál de las siguientes no es una componente de una serie de tiempo? a) estacionalidad. b) variaciones causales. c) tendencia. d) variaciones aleatorias

a

b

c

d

The question asks which of the following is not a component of a time series. The correct answer is "b) variaciones causales." Variaciones causales refers to causal variations, which are not a component of a time series. Time series analysis focuses on identifying and analyzing patterns and trends in data over time, including seasonality (a), trend (c), and random variations (d). Causal variations, on the other hand, involve external factors that cause changes in the data, and they are not considered as inherent components of a time series.

Explanation

The question asks which of the following is not a component of a time series. The correct answer is "b) variaciones causales." Variaciones causales refers to causal variations, which are not a component of a time series. Time series analysis focuses on identifying and analyzing patterns and trends in data over time, including seasonality (a), trend (c), and random variations (d). Causal variations, on the other hand, involve external factors that cause changes in the data, and they are not considered as inherent components of a time series.

48. 14. ¿Cuál de los siguientes se emplea para alertar al usuario de que ocurrió un error significativo en un modelo de pronósticos durante uno de los periodos? a) índice estacional. b) constante de suavizamiento. c) señal de rastreo. d) coeficiente de regresión.

a

b

c

d

The correct answer is "c) señal de rastreo." The "señal de rastreo" is used to alert the user that a significant error occurred in a forecasting model during one of the periods. This signal helps to identify and track errors in the model, allowing for adjustments and improvements to be made.

Explanation

The correct answer is "c) señal de rastreo." The "señal de rastreo" is used to alert the user that a significant error occurred in a forecasting model during one of the periods. This signal helps to identify and track errors in the model, allowing for adjustments and improvements to be made.

49. 5. La pérdida de oportunidad mínima esperada a) es igual al pago esperado más alto. b) es mayor que el valor esperado con información perfecta. c) es igual al valor esperado de la información perfecta. d) se calcula al encontrar la decisión de arrepentimiento mínima.

a

b

c

d

The minimum expected opportunity loss is equal to the expected value of perfect information.

Explanation

The minimum expected opportunity loss is equal to the expected value of perfect information.

50. 12) El VEIM a) se encuentra restando el VME sin información muestral del VME con información muestral. b) siempre es igual al valor esperado de la información perfecta. c) es igual al VME con información muestral, suponiendo que no hay costo por la información menos el VME sin información muestral. d) generalmente es negativo

a

b

c

d

The VEIM is equal to the VME with sample information, assuming there is no cost for the information, minus the VME without sample information.

Explanation

The VEIM is equal to the VME with sample information, assuming there is no cost for the information, minus the VME without sample information.

51. 9. En una distribución normal estándar, la media es igual a a) 1. b) 0. c) la varianza. d) la desviación estándar.

a

b

c

d

In a standard normal distribution, the mean is always equal to 0. This means that the average value of the data points in the distribution is 0. The other options, such as 1 (option a), the variance (option c), and the standard deviation (option d), do not represent the mean in a standard normal distribution. Therefore, the correct answer is b) 0.

Explanation

In a standard normal distribution, the mean is always equal to 0. This means that the average value of the data points in the distribution is 0. The other options, such as 1 (option a), the variance (option c), and the standard deviation (option d), do not represent the mean in a standard normal distribution. Therefore, the correct answer is b) 0.

52. Una medida de tendencia central es a) el valor esperado. b) la varianza. c) la desviación estándar. d) todo lo anterior.

a

b

c

d

The correct answer is a) el valor esperado. The value expected is a measure of central tendency that represents the average or typical value in a set of data. It is calculated by summing all the values in the data set and dividing by the number of values. The value expected is commonly used in probability theory and statistics to describe the long-term average or expected outcome of a random variable.

Explanation

The correct answer is a) el valor esperado. The value expected is a measure of central tendency that represents the average or typical value in a set of data. It is calculated by summing all the values in the data set and dividing by the number of values. The value expected is commonly used in probability theory and statistics to describe the long-term average or expected outcome of a random variable.

53. 7. Cuando se comparan varios modelos de pronósticos para determinar cuál se ajusta mejor a un conjunto de datos específico, el modelo que debería elegirse es el que tiene a) el mayor ECM. b) la DMA más cercana a 1. c) un sesgo de 0. d) la menor DMA.

a

b

c

d

The correct answer is "d) la menor DMA." When comparing multiple forecast models to determine which one fits best with a specific set of data, the model that should be chosen is the one with the smallest DMA (Mean Absolute Deviation). The DMA measures the average difference between the actual values and the forecasted values, so a smaller DMA indicates a better fit between the model and the data.

Explanation

The correct answer is "d) la menor DMA." When comparing multiple forecast models to determine which one fits best with a specific set of data, the model that should be chosen is the one with the smallest DMA (Mean Absolute Deviation). The DMA measures the average difference between the actual values and the forecasted values, so a smaller DMA indicates a better fit between the model and the data.

54. 15) Al evaluar los valores de la utilidad, a) se asigna al peor resultado una utilidad de –1. b) se asigna al mejor resultado una utilidad de 0. c) se asigna al peor resultado una utilidad de 0. d) se asigna al mejor resultado un valor de –1.

a

b

c

d

When evaluating utility values, the worst result is assigned a utility of 0.

Explanation

When evaluating utility values, the worst result is assigned a utility of 0.

55. 4. ¿Cuál de los siguientes es un modelo de series de tiempo? a) modelo Delphi. b) análisis de regresión. c) suavizamiento exponencial. d) regresión múltiple.

a

b

c

d

The correct answer is c) suavizamiento exponencial. Suavizamiento exponencial es un modelo de series de tiempo que se utiliza para predecir valores futuros en función de los valores pasados de la serie. Este modelo toma en cuenta tanto la tendencia como la estacionalidad de los datos para hacer las predicciones.

Explanation

The correct answer is c) suavizamiento exponencial. Suavizamiento exponencial es un modelo de series de tiempo que se utiliza para predecir valores futuros en función de los valores pasados de la serie. Este modelo toma en cuenta tanto la tendencia como la estacionalidad de los datos para hacer las predicciones.

56. 9. Una ecuación de tendencia es una ecuación de regresión en la cual a) existen múltiples variables independientes. b) la intersección y la pendiente son iguales. c) la variable dependiente es el tiempo. d) la variable independiente es el tiempo

a

b

c

d

A trend equation is a regression equation in which the independent variable is time.

Explanation

A trend equation is a regression equation in which the independent variable is time.

57. 3. Un ejemplo de un modelo causal es a) suavizamiento exponencial. b) proyección de tendencia. c) promedios móviles. d) análisis de regresión

a

b

c

d

An example of a causal model is regression analysis. Regression analysis is a statistical technique used to examine the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. It helps to determine how changes in the independent variables affect the dependent variable. This type of analysis is used to establish cause-and-effect relationships and understand the impact of different factors on a particular outcome.

Explanation

An example of a causal model is regression analysis. Regression analysis is a statistical technique used to examine the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. It helps to determine how changes in the independent variables affect the dependent variable. This type of analysis is used to establish cause-and-effect relationships and understand the impact of different factors on a particular outcome.