Session 14 | Reading 39 | LOS g    

20 cards

LO g: Discuss the advantages and limitations of VAR and its extensions, including cash flow at risk, earnings at risk, and tail value at risk.


 
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Created Mar 23, 2011
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lutfallah

 

 
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1
One primary advantage of VAR is the ability to compare 
 
the operating performance of different assets with different risk characteristics. 
2
That is, VAR is interpreted the same, regardless of 
 
the assets in question. 
3
VAR is also frequently used in the risk budgeting process, where upper management 
 
allocates VAR across the units and the manager’s goal is to maximize return for the allocated...
4
Although VAR is easily understood and usually accepted by regulatory bodies, all methods...
 
needing to estimate inputs and make assumptions, and the problem becomes more and more daunting...
5
Just identifying all risks (much less predicting their impacts on portfolio value) may be 
 
impossible or financially infeasible.
6
Since all the methods for estimating VAR suffer from limiting assumptions, managers will...
 
back test the model(s) to determine historical accuracy. In addition, many managers will...
7
Incremental VAR (IVAR). From a portfolio management standpoint, IVAR is the effect of 
 
an individual asset on the overall risk of the portfolio. 
8
IVAR is calculated by measuring the difference between 
 
the portfolio VAR with and without the asset. 
9
In this manner IVAR catches the effects of 
 
the correlation of the asset with the rest of the portfolio.
10
Cash flow at risk (CFAR): Some companies cannot be valued directly, which makes calculating...
 
difficult or even meaningless. 
11
Instead of using VAR, CFAR measures the risk of 
 
the company’s cash flows. 
12
CFAR is interpreted much the same as VAR, only substituting 
 
cash flow for value. 
13
In other words, CFAR is the minimum 
 
cash flow loss at a given significance over a given time period. 
14
Earnings at risk (EAR) is analogous to CFAR only from an 
 
accounting earnings standpoint. 
15
Both CFAR and EAR are often used to add 
 
validity to VAR calculations.
16
Tail value at risk (TVAR): VAR is interpreted as 
 
the minimal loss at a given significance. 
17
For example we might say our 5%, 1-day VAR is $1 million. This means 
 
the probability of a 1-day loss greater than $1 million is 5%. 
18
Notice that this figure doesn’t tell us 
 
the magnitude of potential losses beyond $1 million. 
19
In response, TVAR is VAR plus 
 
the expected value in the tail of the distribution, which could be estimated by averaging...
20
Extensions of VAR: VAR can also be used to measure 
 
credit at risk, and efforts have been made to estimate a variation of VAR for assets with...

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